Opening Day is finally here, with the Arizona Diamondbacks visiting the two-time reigning World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers in primetime on NBC. Yoshinobu Yamamoto will take the bump for the Dodgers, facing off against Diamondbacks ace Zac Gallen in Chavez Ravine. Looking at the odds, lines and Yamamoto’s strikeouts prop on DraftKings Sportsbook, here is a breakdown of how the World Series MVP’s first official outing of the year could play out.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Strikeouts Prop
DraftKings Sportsbook currently has Yamamoto’s strikeouts thrown line set at 5.5 for Thursday’s contest against the Diamondbacks.
Yamamoto went 12-8 with a 2.49 ERA, 0.990 WHIP, 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings and a 4.9 WAR in 2025. He tossed 173.2 innings across 30 starts in the regular season, racking up 201 strikeouts along the way. It marked a massive leap for the first-time All-Star, who only made 18 starts as a rookie in 2024. He also went from lasting five innings per start in 2024 to 5.8 innings per start in 2025. As a result, his strikeouts per start also climbed from 5.8 to 6.7. Then in the postseason, Yamamoto took his game to another level. The righty went 5-1 with a 1.45 ERA and 0.777 WHIP in the playoffs, notching at least six strikeouts in four of his five October starts.
Never put too much stock into Spring Training performance, but Yamamoto did go 2-0 with a 2.79 ERA and 14 strikeouts in 9.2 innings. He also ramped up his workload at the World Baseball Classic, where he went 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA and seven strikeouts in 6.2 innings of action.
Based on FanGraphs‘ Steamer model, Yamamoto is projected to go 11-7 with a 3.45 ERA and 163 strikeouts across 26 starts and 154 innings in 2026. His 3.4 projected fWAR ranks No. 16 among starting pitchers, while his projected 9.48 strikeouts per nine innings rank No. 37.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto picks, predictions
Yamamoto went over 5.5 strikeouts in 22 of his 30 starts last regular season. Of his 20 starts that went into the sixth inning, Yamamoto notched at least six strikeouts 18 times. The 27-year-old also cleared Thursday’s strikeouts line in three of his four starts against the D-backs – including both of the matchups versus Arizona in Los Angeles – and 11 of his 12 wins.
Arizona is returning a pretty similar lineup to the one that recorded the eighth-fewest strikeouts in the majors in 2025. They did notably bring in Nolan Arenado to replace Eugenio Suárez and Blaze Alexander’s production at third base, though. Suárez and Alexander combined for a 28.9% strikeout rate, while Arenado posted an 11.2% mark. The Diamondbacks also added 40-year-old Carlos Santana, who hasn’t had a strikeout rate over 20% since 2011.
At the same time, Corbin Carroll is 1-for-17 with zero walks and six strikeouts in his career versus Yamamoto. Geraldo Perdomo, Gabriel Moreno, Pavin Smith, Alek Thomas and Jordan Lawlar are a combined 5-for-38 with 16 strikeouts against the right-hander. Ketel Marte is really the only Arizona holdover with any kind of success against Yamamoto, going 5-for-15 with just two strikeouts in 18 head-to-head plate appearances.
That puts a lot of pressure on Marte to chase Yamamoto out of the game early. Considering his .211 batting average in Spring Training and .263 batting average at the WBC – plus his recent lower leg soreness – I’m not sure if he’ll be hot enough right off the bat to successfully shoulder that load. Look for Yamamoto to last into the sixth and get credit the win, both of which are strong indicators that he will also go over 5.5 punchouts.
Best Bet: Yoshinobu Yamamoto over 5.5 strikeouts thrown (-142)
