Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top two home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Thursday’s 11-game Opening Day slate: Will Smith and Willson Contreras.
Top MLB Home Run Props
Will Smith 1+ Home Run (+368)
It’s going to be difficult to top the last home run Will Smith hit. You know, the one off Shane Bieber in extra innings of Game 7 of the World Series? Apologies to any Blue Jays fans reading this. Still, it would be pretty cool if Smith started this season the way he finished off the previous one, and he’s got a great opportunity with Zac Gallen taking the mound for the Diamondbacks. The right-hander was awful in 2025, finishing his campaign with a 4.83 ERA and being one of only eight pitchers to surrender over 30 home runs during the regular season — that included 1.71 per nine specifically to opposing RHBs. Arizona’s underwhelming bullpen doesn’t exactly project any better behind Gallen, either. Meanwhile, Smith registered a .202 ISO and a 153 wRC+ in his 436 plate appearances. He had a 95th percentile expected wOBA (.378). Smith isn’t simply one of the best hitting catchers in baseball, he’s just flat out one of the league’s best hitters.
Willson Contreras 1+ Home Run (+289)
I need to just give a quick endorsement of Andrew Abbott before I pick someone to hit a home run off him on Opening Day. Abbott is legitimately good. The fact that he pitched to a 2.39 ERA at Great American Ball Park in 2025 is amazing, yet that environment always looms large. GABP has long been one of the best places in baseball to hit a long ball, and I think someone on the Red Sox will take advantage this afternoon. Maybe it will be one of the many left-handed bats at the top of this order in the later innings off a middling Reds’ bullpen, but I’ll instead take my chances with Contreras in his debut with Boston. Contreras has seen a lot of Abbott in past NL Central battles, and the veteran owns a 1.045 OPS off the lefty with a home run. More importantly, Contreras smashed all LHPs last season, registering a .211 ISO and a 143 wRC+ within the split. I’m betting the veteran makes a fantastic first impression.
