The Iowa Hawkeyes (23-12, 10-10 Big Ten) and Nebraska Cornhuskers (31-1, 18-0 Big Ten) will face off in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament on Thursday, going head-to-head in Houston. The rivalry rubber match between the No. 9 seed and No. 4 seed will tip-off at 7:30 p.m. ET/4:30 p.m. PT on CBS.
The Cornhuskers are 1.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at 131.5 points. The winner will face the winner of No. 2 seed Houston vs. No. 3 Illinois on Saturday.
Iowa vs. Nebraska Preview, Prediction
Iowa Preview
In year one post-Fran McCaffery, Ben McCollum led the Hawkeyes to an 18-5 start. Four of those five losses came in away games, though, and Iowa’s road struggles would only continue down the stretch. Maryland and Penn State were Big Ten bottom-feeders, and Iowa still lost to them. The Hawkeyes entered the tournament on a 3-7 skid, with each of their last four losses coming by either one possession or in overtime. Iowa proceeded to beat No. 8 seed Clemson 67-61 in the round of 64, then knock off No. 1 seed Florida 73-72 thanks to a last-second three.
Robert Morris transfer Alvaro Folgueiras, who is averaging 8.5 points per game off the bench, hit that game-winner. Bennett Stirtz is the Hawkeyes’ leading scorer and assist man with 19.7 and 4.5 per game, respectively. Tavion Banks is the only other Iowa player averaging double-figures with 10.6 points and 4.7 rebounds a night. The starting frontcourt of Cooper Koch and Cam Manyawu bring different skillsets to the table. The former averages 7.8 points per game on 40.8% three-point shooting. The latter averages 6.9 points, 4.7 rebounds and 1.4 steals plus blocks per game.
Iowa ranks No. 14 nationally in two-point percentage and No. 15 in turnover rate differential. Its most defining trait is its glacial pace, which is the fourth-slowest in the country and the slowest remaining in the field.
The Hawkeyes rank No. 22 in the updated KenPom ratings, owning the No. 25 offense and No. 31 defense. As for the NET rankings, Iowa entered the tournament at No. 27. The program was 5-9 against Quad 1, 4-1 against Quad 2, 6-2 against Quad 3 and 6-0 against Quad 4. Thursday’s game against Nebraska constitutes a Quad 1 matchup.
Nebraska Preview
After leading the Cornhuskers to back-to-back 20-win seasons, Fred Hoiberg got his team out to a 20-0 start. That featured nonconference wins over Oklahoma, New Mexico, Kansas State and Creighton, as well as a 9-0 opening to Big Ten action. From that point on, however, Nebraska went 6-6. The first four of those losses came by single digits, but blowout defeats at UCLA and versus Purdue in the conference tournament sunk the ‘Huskers down to a No. 4 seed. Still, they beat No. 13 seed Troy 76-47 in round one, then No. 5 seed Vanderbilt 74-72 thanks to a buzzer-beater that rimmed out.
Forward Pryce Sandfort, a transfer from Iowa, led the Cornhuskers with 17.9 points per game this season. He is hitting 41.0% of his 8.8 three-point attempts per game. After missing last season recovering from knee surgery, forward Rienk Mast averages 13.5 points and 5.8 rebounds per game. Forward Berke Buyuktuncel is averaging 6.7 points and 5.4 rebounds per game, while Braden Frager is putting up 11.7 points per game as a sixth man. The starting backcourt duo of Jamarques Lawrence and Sam Hoiberg are averaging over 9.0 points per game, plus their 4.1 and 3.9 assists per game, respectively.
The Cornhuskers boast the 11th-lowest free-throw rate in the country, but they still rank No. 7 in free-throw rate differential. They also allow the fifth-highest three-point rate in the country while ranking No. 11 in three-point rate on offense. On an efficiency basis, Nebraska shoots at a top-20 clip from two and holds opponents to a bottom-10 percentage from deep.
Per the latest KenPom ratings, the Cornhuskers rank No. 52 on offense, No. 6 on defense and No. 13 overall. They entered the tournament at No. 14 in the NET, going 9-6 against Quad 1, 6-0 against Quad 2, 5-0 against Quad 3 and 6-0 against Quad 4. Thursday’s game versus Iowa constitutes a Quad 1 matchup.
Iowa vs. Nebraska Pick, Best Bet
The Hawkeyes and Cornhuskers split their two head-to-head matchups this season, with the home team winning each time. Iowa won 57-52 when it hosted, while Nebraska won 84-75 in overtime in Lincoln. Taking those two results into account, it’s hard to make a strong play on the point total in either direction.
According to the Bart Torvik model, Nebraska is projected to win by 1.6 points. The expected final score, per that projection, is 67-66.
When high-major opponents shoot 35.5% or better from deep against the Hawkeyes, Iowa is just 3-6. When it defends the three-point line more efficiently, it is 20-6. Nebraska has shot above that percentage from beyond the arc three times in its last four outings. The Cornhuskers shot below 33% from deep in each of their last three losses, so their efficiency from three cuts both ways.
I’m going with the favorite in this one, even if the current line doesn’t leave a ton of value on the table. The analytics have this one as a toss-up for good reason, I just like Nebraska to stay hot from three-point land against a mediocre perimeter defense. Iowa will probably keep the score close by slowing things down, but I don’t think it pulls off a third-straight upset. As for the Cornhuskers, an Elite Eight appearance wouldn’t be too shabby for a program that had never won an NCAA Tournament game before 2026.
