No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. No. 2 Houston Cougars College Basketball prediction, preview (10:05 ET on Thursday in Houston, TX)
Both Illinois and Houston enter Thursday night’s Sweet 16 matchup off dominant starts to the NCAA Tournament. The Illini pummeled Penn and then handled VCU by more than 20 points. Houston won each of its tournament games by exactly 31 points against Idaho and Texas A&M. Now we get a heavyweight battled between two teams that each rank in the top-six in the country by KenPom metrics, with the game being playing down the street from the Houston campus.
This should be pretty close to a home atmosphere for the Cougars, who went 15-1 at home this season, along with 9-2 at neutral sites. Houston also went 30-4 when favored this season, while the Illini are 3-3 SU and ATS when priced as the underdog. Each team holds and edge on one side of the ball, with Illinois checking in at No. 2 in the country in offensive efficiency, and Houston at 10th, per KenPom.
But the Cougs have the advantage on the defensive side of the ball, where they rank 4th in defensive efficiency, compared to 24th for the Illini. We can also expect a slow pace in the game, as Illinois ranks 276th in adjusted tempo, and Houston is all the way down at 351st. Houston has played to the under recently, cashing 11-5 to the under over its last 16 games.
Illinois has the size and scoring to push Houston to its limits, but ultimately I trust Kelvin Sampson’s team in this spot. The pace of the game should be played in their favor, and this is the time of year the Cougars seem to thrive. Houston’s bigs will have to control the glass, which can be challenging against Illinois, but if they can do that, I like how the game sets up for Houston in front of a favorable crowd.
I expect Kingston Flemings to step up and provide the spark offensively that the Cougars will need to keep up with the Illini. Elite defenses that also have scoring ability have seemed to keep Illinois in check this season, and that’s exactly what I feel Houston can do. Rather than go with a full bet on the game, I’m going to split my bet in half and place two wagers.
The first wager is simply for Houston to cover as the 2.5-point favorite. Assuming we get that one correct, I would love the Cougars facing the winning of Iowa and Nebraska in Houston, and want to back Houston again. So I’ll place the second half of the wager on Houston to reach the Final Four at +120 odds.
