So… We’re all pretty sure this is Tarik Skubal’s final Opening Day start with the Tigers, right?
Following a record-setting arbitration hearing in the winter, the best left-hander in baseball takes the mound this afternoon in San Diego to kick off Detroit’s 2026 campaign with the west coast flourish. Standing in his way? Fernando Tatis Jr. and the rest of the Padres’ lineup. It’s truly one of Thursday’s best matchups.
Can Skubal begin yet another Cy Young quest? Let’s preview this matinee tilt with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tigers vs. Padres prediction, preview
What’s really left to say about Tarik Skubal? Across 77 starts since the beginning of 2023, the left-hander owns a 2.39 ERA that’s perfectly backed-up by a league-best 2.39 FIP. Despite ranking only 33rd in innings thrown within that span (467.2), Skubal also leads all pitchers by a pretty wide margin in fWAR (15.9). If not for the emergence of Paul Skenes in Pittsburgh, there would be zero doubt that Skubal is currently the best starter in MLB. He’s simply that good, and the Padres will have their hands full on Thursday.
Remember, it’s not like San Diego was an offensive juggernaut in 2025. In fact, the team was sort of bad against southpaws, with a 96 wRC+ within the split and a .130 ISO that sat just 23rd in MLB. The deadline acquisition of Ramon Laureano helped somewhat in this struggle, as the veteran slashed .320/.370/.620 in his 54 plate appearances versus LHPs as a Padre, but to be blunt, San Diego will need more from Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado if it hopes in compete in the NL this season. Funnily enough, with Skubal skipping the knockout round this year’s World Baseball Classic, today will actually be the first time that the lefty and Tatis Jr. have faced off with each other. How fun.
Taking the mound for the Padres will be Nick Pivetta. Now, no one is going to get Pivetta and Skubal confused, but the 33-year-old is coming off the best season of his life, maintaining a 2.87 ERA with a 3.49 FIP over 181.2 innings. That said, a .235 opponent BABIP certainly aided Pivetta in mustering an ERA below 3.00 for the first time in his career, as that was the lowest qualified mark in the NL. A 78.7% strand rate was also a career-best, so we should all be looking out for some regression from the Canadian RHP in 2026 — it’s just going to be a matter of how much normalization is on the horizon.
Finally, let’s talk a little Kevin McGonigle. Either the No. 1 or the No. 2 prospect in baseball depending on your publication, McGonigle finished last season with 206 plate appearances in Double-A, posting 12 home runs and a 162 wRC+. It seemed like a safe bet that the 21-year-old would be debuting for the Tigers at some point in 2026, yet I’m not sure how many would have predicted it would be on Opening Day. However, after a rousing run in Spring Training — and no shortage of holes to fill in this Detroit lineup — here we are. McGonigle should be making Tigers fans smile for years to come.
Tigers vs. Padres pick, best bet
Best Bet: Tigers ML (-126)
Not including the playoffs, Detroit was 21-10 in Skubal’s 31 starts last season. Getting the Tigers this close to a pick’em with their ace on the mound is a steal.
Strong Lean: Under 7.5 (-148)
Skubal’s amazing and Pivetta’s good enough — it helps that the Padres’ bullpen might be the best in baseball. Let’s also not forget that the Tigers struggled to a 94 wRC+ following the All-Star Game in 2025. There’s a reason they blew that massive lead in the division.
