Can you smell that in the air? Fresh cut grass, hot dogs on the grill, cold beverages being poured left and right. It’s Opening Day across Major League Baseball on Thursday. The best pitchers in the sport are getting ready to toe the rubber. The most talented hitters around are looking for their first knock of a fresh season. Seriously, are you not fired up? I’m ready to run through a wall.
This White Sox-Brewers matchup is part of our early slate and is loaded with talent.
First pitch is set for 2:10 p.m. ET. Milwaukee sits as a strong -186 home favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, while Chicago sits as a +153 underdog. The game total is set at O/U eight runs. Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this White Sox-Brewers game.
White Sox vs. Brewers Preview
First, we have to break down the pitching matchup.
Milwaukee’s electric youngster, Jacob Misiorowski, will make his first of many Opening Day starts against the Southsiders. He brings a fastball that sits around 100 mph, along with a wicked slider, curveball, and changeup to mix up your eye levels. Don’t let his 4.36 ERA as a rookie deceive you; the Miz had an expected ERA of 3.41, according to Baseball Savant. He boasts an elite strikeout rate and produced only a .202 expected batting average. If he can get his command down, this could be a dominant year for the young Milwaukee ace.
Opposite him is another youngster coming off a great rookie campaign. Shane Smith is the de facto ace for Chicago, but it’s an earned distinction. He, more or less, has the same arsenal as Misiorowski, but he also works in a sinker. Smith boasts strong velocity as well with a fastball averaging roughly 96 mph. Though he doesn’t win by striking everyone out, Smith did a great job at avoiding barrels last year, producing a barrel rate that sat in the league’s 76th percentile. A 3.81 ERA in 146.1 innings last year was a strong start, and this is Smith’s chance to continue building.
The gap on the mound may not be very wide, despite the gap in name recognition. But the range in these offenses is vast.
Last season, the White Sox ranked 27th in MLB with a collective 88 wRC+, per FanGraphs. They did add Munetaka Murakami this offseason, which should give them a boost in the slugging department. But for a base-case scenario, Chicago’s lineup could be average in 2026. Meanwhile, Milwaukee posted a 107 wRC+ as a team last season, and it’s essentially running it back with the same lineup. It’s still a young team with room to grow, led by guys like Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick, and Brice Turang. You wouldn’t be out over your skis if you said Milwaukee could have a top-five offense this year.
We should also address the gap in bullpens. Milwaukee’s one-two punch between Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill is impressive. And the Brewers have other strong arms in Angel Zerpa, Jared Koenig, and Aaron Ashby. It’s a great bridge between Misiorowski and victory. Meanwhile, Chicago made efforts to improve its arm barn by signing Seranthony Dominguez, and Grant Taylor may be one of the best middle relievers in baseball. But the rest of the pen is a bit rough.
Now that we’ve looked at both squads, how do we find value on the book?
White Sox vs. Brewers Pick, Best Bet
Smith will do his best to keep this one close, but I expect Misiorowski to carve through this White Sox lineup like a hot knife through butter. When this game gets to the bullpens, Milwaukee should really open things up. Expect a convincing Opening Day victory from the 2025 regular-season champs.
