On September 9, 2025, Bolivia’s national team pulled off one of the more shocking upsets in football, hosting Brazil in El Alto and beating the Seleçao 1-0 to leapfrog Venezuela and secure a spot in the Intercontinental Playoffs for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Now, six months later, La Verde are just 180 minutes away from their first World Cup since 1994.
If it wants to become the seventh COMNEBOL nation to advance to the World Cup, Bolivia will have to take down Suriname tonight at 6 p.m. ET (4 p.m. local) in Monterrey, Mexico. The winner will go on to face Iraq next Tuesday in the same stadium, with the winner of that match joining France, Senegal, and Norway in a stacked Group I.
Bolivia is a +115 favorite to win at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Natio are +250. There are +215 odds that the tie will require penalties.
Bolivia vs. Suriname prediction, pick
La Verde’s qualification campaign was a tale of two halves and of two venues. After four straight losses to open their campaign, they finally picked up a home win over Peru, and after shifting their host venue from La Paz (11,932 feet above sea level) to El Alto (13,412 feet), they went 4-2-0 at home, which was enough to qualify for the intercontinental playoffs despite winning just one game on the road (against Chile in September 2024). By comparison, Suriname had a more stable qualification campaign, drawing just once in the second round and picking up two wins, three draws, and a loss in the third round. Natio looked to be in a strong position headed into the final group stage match against Guatemala, but they quickly fell behind 3-0 to the already-eliminated Chapines and only snuck into the Intercontinental Playoffs because a Guatemala own goal in the 93rd minute squeaked them ahead of Honduras on goals scored.
Bolivia’s status as the clear favorite makes some sense. La Verde are ranked 76th in the latest FIFA World Rankings, far ahead of Suriname (122nd). They’ve also had some decent friendly results, drawing with Panama (a team that twice drew with Natio), beating Trinidad and Tobago 3-0, and only losing to Mexico 1-0. Bolivia has a solid striker in Miguel Terceros, a 21-year-old who currently plays for Santos, and Roberto Carlos Fernández, who led the team in assists during COMNEBOL qualifying, is an everyday wingback for Russian side Akron Tolyatti. La Verde’s averaging the fourth-most shots on target per 90 minutes in qualifying can’t solely be tied to altitude, and their grit was a factor in earning four penalty kicks. But Bolivia struggled mightily in defense, giving up by far the most shots on target per 90 minutes and ranking dead last in tackles and offsides against. It should fare better since it doesn’t have to go up against a COMNEBOL attack, but especially since it won’t have a fitness advantage, some of the defensive technical vulnerabilities that it demonstrated throughout the qualification campaign could be problematic. Goalie Carlos Lampé has been extremely solid for his country in prior international tournaments, but he’s 39 years old and has never led his country to a Copa América win.
As for Suriname, it’s a nation on the rise, and it has plenty of players for big-name clubs, including Leeds United attacking midfielder Joël Piroe, who led the team in goals during its 2024/25 Championship promotion push and previously played for the Netherlands’ youth teams. Though Piroe hasn’t netted yet in the Premier League this season, he adds lots of attacking juice to a team that didn’t have any player score more than three goals during the qualification tournament, and by Transfermarkt value, he’s worth nearly as much as La Verde’s entire quad. Still, he won’t help Natio’s defense, and while they were one of the better defensive teams in the third stage of qualifying, giving up three to Guatemala (ranked just 94th in the world) certainly isn’t ideal. Top-choice goalie Etienne Vaessen isn’t a star, either, as he has just a 64.9% save percentage this season in the Eredivisie and didn’t lead his country to a single Gold Cup win last summer.
Ultimately, this game could go either way, because it’s infrequent that Suriname has faced opposition as strong as Bolivia, and La Verde’s track record at sea level hasn’t been great. I have some concerns about both teams’ defenses, especially under the bright lights of a World Cup Playoff, but even with Piroe wearing Natio’s greens, I trust Bolivia’s attack just a little bit more, and Lampé is a more solid shot-stopper with more international experience. I’ll take La Verde to extend their World Cup dream at least five more days.
