A trip to the Elite Eight hangs in the balance when #11 Texas battles #2 Purdue. The Longhorns have won three straight NCAA Tournaments, and are the lowest-seeded team left in the bracket. As for the Boilermakers, six straight wins have the Big Ten champs on track for another deep postseason run. During Thursday’s do or die showdown, which players are poised to make a statement in primetime?
Purdue enters as 7.5-point favorites (-105) over Texas. The total is set at 147.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Ahead of this evening’s March Madness action, here are my two favorite college basketball props for Thursday’s Longhorns vs. Boilermakers showdown.
Matas Vokietaitis 8+ rebounds (-125)
If any Texas player has earned the title of MVP this postseason, it’s Matas Vokietaitis. The center has delivered a combined 55 points and 33 rebounds over three March Madness outings. Keep in mind, leading scorer Dailyn Swain hasn’t been nearly as effective in the NCAA Tournament. As a result, UT has leaned heavily on its other star big man. This season, Vokietaitis is putting up 15.7 points and 7.2 rebounds per game while shooting 62% from the field.
In many ways, the Lithuanian is his own worst enemy. Foul trouble has kept Vokietaitis’ average playing time at just under 27 minutes per game. With that being said, the Boilermakers generate the nation’s 30th-fewest free throw attempts per field goals attempted (28.5). In short, Matt Painter’s squad doesn’t induce many fouls on offense. To boot, Purdue’s defensive rebounding rate is at 74.8%. That mark, 45th-best in college basketball, is good but not exceptional. On the flip side, Texas is 31st in offensive rebounding rate (34.1%). Vokietaitis has snagged eight or more boards in each of his previous three contests. Another busy day on the glass is likelier than not for the sophomore.
Braden Smith 9+ assists (-135)
Purdue is first in the nation with a 132.0 adjusted offensive efficiency on KenPom. No player is more responsible for that number than Braden Smith. The senior has been nothing short of exceptional during his four years in West Lafayette. This season, the guard has recorded 14.3 points, 3.5 rebounds and 9.0 assists. That latter mark is good enough for second-best among all Big Ten players. On a team with shooters and talented big men galore, dropping a few dimes is never too difficult.
Smith has been dominant in March, posting at least nine assists in six of his last eight matchups. Purdue’s offensive maestro will have a prime opportunity tonight against a Longhorns squad that struggles on the perimeter. Texas is 81st in adjusted defensive efficiency (104.2), worst among all remaining NCAA Tournament schools. In addition, UT is allowing college basketball’s 34th-most assists per field goals made (46.0). Arguably the sport’s most gifted passer, Smith should have little trouble dicing up defenders on Thursday.
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