Even seven seasons after leaving, Kawhi Leonard will continue to be associated with the Toronto Raptors because of the dramatic nature of the championship that he won with the team in 2019. Despite leaving the team after just one season, Raptors fans continue to revere him.
They’ll surely be disappointed, then, that for the second time this season, Leonard won’t be available to play when his LA Clippers take on Toronto, this time at 10:40 p.m. ET at the Intuit Dome. It’ll be his 17th missed game of the season; if he sits out any more, he won’t be eligible for an All-NBA team.
It’ll be a critical matchup for both teams; the Raptors currently hold pole position in a six-team race for two automatic playoff berths in the East, while the Clippers are just half a game ahead of the Portland Trail Blazers for eighth in the West.
Both teams are dealing with some injury questions. Brandon Ingram (foot) and Jakob Poeltl (back) are both questionable for Toronto, and Immanuel Quickley (foot) is doubtful. Both Leonard and Jordan Miller (back) are out for LA.
The Clippers are 3.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-180 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 226.5. Meanwhile, Toronto is +150 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this critical showcase and offer a prediction.
Toronto Raptors at LA Clippers preview, prediction
The Raptors have stagnated somewhat since the All-Star break, posting just an 8-8 record, but they’ve been winning enough to hold onto their postseason spot and have a 1.5-game edge over the seventh-seeded Philadelphia 76ers for now. They’ve still struggled to beat competitive teams, as they’re just 17-26 against teams at .500 or better, but with an easier-than-average remaining schedule, their position is solid, and they should improve moving forward. Rookie Collin Murray-Boyles, a key piece of their front-court depth, only recently returned from a thumb injury, and Jamal Shead has shot the ball anomalously poorly.
LA, meanwhile, has continued its steady climb up the standings, going 10-8 since the All-Star break to finally make it back above .500, but it hasn’t been perfect, losing to the Sacramento Kings once and the New Orleans Pelicans twice. Both new arrivals have acquitted themselves well: Darius Garland has shot 50.7% from beyond the arc in his first 10 games with the team, and the Clippers will also welcome back Bennedict Mathurin, who’s averaged 19.9 points per game in his first 16 games despite a balky jumper. Needless to say, both players will be critical tonight.
Raptors at Clippers pick, best bet
This game is a fundamentally different contest without Leonard. With him on the court, LA has out-scored opponents by 7.7 points per 100 possessions, playing at the average efficiency of roughly a 60-win team. Without him, the Clippers have been out-scored by 6.2 points per 100 possessions, which would put them on a 30-win trajectory. Leonard’s 13.3-point net swing is the second-largest in the league, trailing only Victor Wembanyama’s, and while Garland and Mathurin have both had massively positive impacts on the team in small sample sizes, that’s in part because Garland has played more than half of his minutes alongside Leonard.
Toronto should have the slightest of advantages on the interior. Since Mathurin made his team debut on February 10, the Clippers have allowed the eighth-highest shooting percentage at the rim, and opponents have attempted shots at the rim at a rate 1.5 percentage points higher with Leonard off the floor, even though he ranks in just the second percentile in rim points saved per 100 possessions. Plus, while LA has done a better job both getting to the rim and finishing than the Raptors since Mathurin’s debut, Leonard’s two-point efficiency (95th percentile), rim and short midrange efficiency, and gravity will be seriously missed.
Neither team is particularly good on the glass; across the last month and a half, the Clippers rank 10th-to-last in total rebounding percentage and Toronto fourth-to-last, but the Raptors should be better now that Murray-Boyles has returned and LA should be somewhat worse without Leonard. Toronto should have a slight edge in transition, since as solid as the Clippers have been in the fast-break as of late, they’ll be worse without Leonard, who ranks third in steals per game and in the 91st percentile in transition true shooting percentage. LA should still be better at getting to the charity stripe, since Mathurin excels at drawing contact.
Both of these teams will make it difficult for the other to get good looks. Since Mathurin joined the Clippers, they’ve allowed the second-fewest wide-open threes per game, while the Raptors have allowed the fewest. Toronto is arguably more due for shooting luck normalization, as it has given up the second-highest percentage on such shots across that span. Across the same span, the Raptors have been better at generating wide-open looks, and they should be able to expand that margin tonight without Leonard’s gravity. LA has more talented raw shooters — it ranks seventh in three-point percentage this season, while Toronto ranks 21st — but Garland is bound to cool down at some point, and Leonard is the best shooter on the roster.
Even assuming that the best versions of the inconsistent Garland and Mathurin both show up tonight and that the Intuit Dome is rocking, this line truly doesn’t make any sense. On neutral ground, the Raptors might be in marginally worse recent form, especially with Leonard playing all but three games since February 10. Without Leonard, Toronto is too good of a proposition to pass up at +150.
