The Timberwolves are hosting the Rockets on Wednesday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Houston is favored by 1.5 points and this game carries a total of 223.5 points.
Let’s dive into my preview and pick for this matchup.
Timberwolves vs. Rockets preview
The Timberwolves lost to the Rockets 110-105 in Houston in early January. Tonight’s rematch in Minnesota is an important matchup for both sides, as these clubs are neck and neck in the standings in the Western Conference. The Timberwolves are the No.5 seed and only a half game ahead of the Rockets.
Anthony Edwards missed that first matchup between these teams and will be out again tonight. The wing is dealing with a knee injury and this will be his fifth missed game in a row. Edwards has been one of the top scorers in the NBA this season, leading Minnesota with a career-high 29.5 PPG. His impact on the offensive end can’t be understated, but the Timberwolves have been much better on the defense without Edwards.
With him off the floor, Minnesota’s defensive rating is 7.4 points per 100 possessions better than with him on. The Timberwolves’ elite defensive capability sans Edwards was on full display this past Sunday night, when they held the Celtics to just 92 points on their home floor. Boston ranks second in offensive rating this season, so this defensive performance was impressive to say the least.
Minnesota has won three of it’s last four since Edwards got hurt and the club is 9-5 overall with him inactive this season. In these games, the Timberwolves are allowing just 107.8 PPG, which would rank third in the league if it was their average for the season. Now, this isn’t to say that the Timberwolves are better off without Edwards, but they play a different brand of basketball with the All-Star absent and play it very well. On offense, Julius Randle, Naz Reid, Bones Hyland and Ayo Dosunmu (questionable, calf) – if he suits up – will lead the way for Minnesota with Edwards sidelined.
After looking like true contenders to begin the season, the Rockets have taken a major step backwards. The club is only 10-8 and ranks just 16th in net rating since the All-Star break. Before the layoff, Houston was 33-20 and ranked sixth in net rating. After notching two strong home wins over the Hawks and Heat, the Rockets went on the road to Chicago on Monday and embarrassingly lost 132-124 to the Bulls. Chicago is 29-42 and ranks 23rd in net rating this season.
Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun continue to put up strong numbers, but Houston as a team just hasn’t been fully connected on both sides of the ball, ranking 15th in offensive rating and 14th in defensive rating since the All-Star break. The Rockets also rank 27th in assist rate over this time and the stingy Timberwolves’ defense could give Durant and company fits tonight.
Timberwolves vs. Rockets pick, best Bet
The Timberwolves should be oozing with confidence after Sunday’s win in Boston and with Minnesota on its home floor tonight, the club should get the win here.
The Timberwolves are 24-13 at home this season, whereas the Rockets are just 18-18 on the road.
