The road to the 2026 FIFA World Cup continues on Thursday as the play-offs for a spot in this summer’s tournament commence. The winner of Italy vs. Northern Ireland will take on the winner of Wales vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina for a place in the World Cup.
It’s essentially a four-team bracket for one spot in the tournament. The eventual winner of the four-team bracket will join Group B in the World Cup alongside Canada, Qatar and Switzerland.
Italy are -330 favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook for this one, with a draw available at +400. Fancy a Northern Ireland upset? They are +1000 on the moneyline.
The Italians are huge favorites to advance to the play-off final at -900, while Northern Ireland are available at +500.
Italy vs. Northern Ireland Prediction, Pick
This bet can be found under the “Match Parlays” tab. In the FIFA World Rankings, Italy are ranked #12 while Northern Ireland sit at #69.
It was a disappointing qualifying campaign for Italy, finishing second in Group I to Norway. As a result, they will need to qualify for the World Cup through the play-off. Although it was underwhelming in terms of results, it was also exciting. There were plenty of goals in their games, as they scored 21 times and conceded 12 in their eight games. In six of those eight games, three or more total goals were scored.
For Northern Ireland, they are looking to qualify for their first World Cup since 1986. They finished third in Group A behind Germany and Slovakia. They did not qualify for these play-offs by finishing third, rather it was their Nations League results that granted them a spot as one of the four Nations League group winners who did not finish in the top two of their World Cup qualifying group. The other 12 spots of this 16 team play-off were runners-up in their qualifying group.
Their World Cup campaign was much less eventful than the Italians, scoring seven times and conceding six in six games. Although they will be happy to have made it this far, playing Italy away from home is arguably the toughest possible matchup in these UEFA play-offs.
The Italians should ultimately advance to the World Cup. First things first, they must beat Northern Ireland to get one step closer. This game being at home is a huge plus, and I think they will win and score a few goals in the process.
