Tournament season continues on Tuesday with a pair of games in the NIT Quarterfinals, with the first pitting the Wichita State Shockers against the Tulsa Golden Hurricane in what should be a fun battle between familiar opponents. Both of these teams compete in the American Conference and know each other well, so there’s surely some extra juice that brings additional intrigue to the matchup. Only one can advance to the NIT Semifinals though… which one will it be?
Here’s a prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Wichita State vs. Tulsa on Tuesday, March 24 in the NIT Quarterfinals.
Wichita State vs. Tulsa prediction, preview
Wichita State Shockers
Wichita State doesn’t have the better overall record between these squads at just 24-11 and is a No. 3 seed in this tournament, but that doesn’t mean it’s any less capable of competing. The Shockers downed Wyoming in the opening round before a statement 96-70 victory over No. 2 Oklahoma State on Sunday. Now, the road goes through their own conference opponent.
The Shockers are No. 73 in the KenPom rankings with a +11.43 NETRTG. They’re far better defensively than they are at scoring the ball themselves, allowing 70.4 PPG and ranking 51st in DRTG. Moreover, they hold opponents to a 47.2% eFG% that sits 23rd in all of Division I. Wichita State is also excellent on the glass with 41.6 rebounds a night, good for sixth in the nation as well. The Shockers aren’t as effective on the offensive side of things, averaging 77.6 PPG with the 105th NETRTG. They’re elite on the offensive glass to generate second-chance points with the sixth-best OREB%, but a 43.9% FG% and 34.1% 3P% are both pretty paltry. They’re also bringing just 11.4 assists with a poor 1.105 AST/TO ratio that ranks 230th.
The Shockers have just two double-digit scorers, but one of them is a true standout. Kenyon Giles averages 19.3 PPG as the clear-cut lead option for this roster. Karon Boyd is the other, bringing 10.8 points and 5.7 rebounds a game. Will Berg posts 8.9 points with a team-best 8.1 boards, TJ Williams provides 8.4 points with 4.9 rebounds, and Michael Gray Jr. also plays a prominent role with 8.3 PPG.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Meanwhile, the Tulsa Golden Hurricane enter with a 28-7 overall record as a No. 1 seed. They beat SFA 89-84 in overtime to start this tournament before a 77-66 win over UNLV on Sunday as well, so they’ve performed well thus far and already showed fight to survive a near-upset.
They sit 59th in the KenPom rankings with a +13.33 NETRTG, riding an elite offense to get here.. The Golden Hurricane have the 35th-best ORTG and score 84.2 PPG, 20th most in the nation. They do so with efficient shooting splits at a 46.9% FG% and 38.9% 3P%. That perimeter shooting is particularly strong as Tulsa ranks fifth at the D1 level in the category. The Golden Hurricane also average 15.3 assists with a 1.412 AST/TO ratio, both respectable marks. On defense, they give up 74.0 PPG to opponents and are a rough 129th in DRTG, bringing in 37.3 rebounds a game in the process.
The Golden Hurricane have four double-digit scorers, headlined by David Green and his 16.1 points with 4.5 rebounds per game while shooting 39.6% from deep and 50.1% overall. Tylen Riley brings 14.8 points with a team-best 4.3 dimes. Miles Barnstable averages 14.6 PPG and Ade Popoola scores 10.3 PPG. Tyler Behrend also sees a somewhat heavy dose of minutes.
Wichita State vs. Tulsa pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists Tulsa as a 4.5-point favorite with -185 odds on the Moneyline. Wichita State is a +250 ML underdog with the game total set at 152.5 combined points.
Stifling defense takes on high-scoring offense… stop me if you’ve heard this one before. There’s a case for both teams here, but I choose to look at it this way. The Golden Hurricane have the capability to speed up the game, and if they get out ahead early, it may prove quite difficult for their opponent to catch up. They’ll certainly face some trouble and may lose the rebounding battle, but they’re the more efficient team and have put up far more points on a regular basis this season. It’s not that the Shockers can’t win, but someone may need to step up if Tulsa just blitzes Giles with multiple defenders. If the Golden Hurricane can simply slow him down in the scoring column, they should have the upper hand to cover.
