The Saint Joseph’s Hawks (24-11, 13-5 A-10) and New Mexico Lobos (25-10, 13-7 Mountain West) will face off in the NIT quarterfinals on Tuesday night, going head-to-head in Albuquerque. The postseason showdown will tip off at 9 p.m. ET/6 p.m. PT on ESPN2. The winner will face the winner of Tulsa vs. Wichita State in the NIT semifinals at Hinkle Fieldhouse on April 2.
The Lobos are 10.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook with -650 Moneyline odds. The total is set at 152.5 points.
Saint Joseph’s vs. New Mexico Preview, Prediction
Saint Joseph’s Preview
In the early goings of Steve Donahue’s first year in Philadelphia, it didn’t seem like the Hawks would participate in any kind of postseason action. There was a 0-3 road trip against Virginia Tech, Penn and UNLV turned out to be a speed bump, then a 2-4 stretch that bled into the start of A-10 action. Saint Joseph’s proceeded to win 14 of 17 before losing to VCU in the conference tournament semifinals. They opened the NIT with tight road wins over Colorado State and Cal.
La Salle transfer Deuce Jones was the Hawks’ leading scorer to start the season with 15.8 points per game, but he left the program in December. St. John’s transfer Jaiden Glover has filled the void with 16,0 points per game while shooting 35.7% from deep on 7.6 attempts per game. Derek Simpson has taken a leap as well, averaging 13.4 points, 5.3 assists and 5.3 rebounds per game. Forward Dasear Haskins is averaging 11.0 points and 6.5 rebounds per game alongside big man Justice Ajogbor, who is putting up 6.4 points, 5.0 rebounds and 2.1 blocks a night.
Saint Joe’s ranks top-30 in defensive rebounds and blocks per game, on top of committing the eighth-fewest fouls per game in the country. On the other hand, they rank outside the top-300 in steals per game and three-point percentage.
The Hawks rank No. 106 in the updated KenPom ratings, owning the No. 191 offense and No. 56 defense. As for the NET rankings, Saint Joseph’s comes in at No. 121. The program entered the NIT 0-4 against Quad 1, 2-3 against Quad 2, 9-2 against Quad 3 and 9-2 against Quad 4. Tuesday’s game against New Mexico constitutes a Quad 1 matchup.
New Mexico Preview
At the end of January, the Lobos were making a serious push for an at-large bid. They were 18-4 overall and 9-2 in-conference before losing back-to-back home games to Utah State and Boise State. That sparked a 5-6 skid that ran through the Mountain West tournament, even if the last five of those losses all came by single digits. New Mexico fell off the bubble and failed to make the NCAA tournament. Playing at home to open the NIT, New Mexico stomped Sam Houston and George Washington by 24 and 25 points, respectively.
Losing point guard Donovan Dent to UCLA in the transfer portal didn’t sink the Lobos, thanks in large part to freshman guard Jake Hall. The sharpshooter is averaging 16.0 points per game while leading the Mountain West with a 45.2% three-point percentage on 7.1 attempts a night. Meanwhile, Deyton Albury, Luke Haupt and Uriah Tenette handle the playmaking duties with 8.9 assists per game between them. Hall isn’t the only star freshman in New Mexico’s rotation, with Croatian forward Tomislav Buljan averaging 12.8 points and 10.4 rebounds per game. Then there are former Rutgers big man Antonio Chol and 7-foot-1 Iowa State transfer JT Rock, who bring more size to the frontcourt.
New Mexico ranks No. 44 in three-point percentage and No. 14 in three-point percentage against.
Per the latest KenPom ratings, the Lobos rank No. 57 on offense, No. 42 on defense, and No. 46 overall. They entered the NIT at No. 46 in the NET, going 2-7 against Quad 1, 6-1 against Quad 2, 4-2 against Quad 3 and 10-0 against Quad 4. Tuesday’s game versus Saint Joe’s constitutes a Quad 3 matchup.
Saint Joseph’s vs. New Mexico Pick, Best Bet
The Hawks slot right in between Sam Houston and George Washington – the Lobos’ last two NIT opponents – in both the KenPom and T-Rank. Considering New Mexico beat both of those teams by 20-plus, so I feel good about another comfortable win on Tuesday. Saint Joe’s barely squeaked by in their last two games, and that luck could very well run out. When the Hawks have played a top-60 T-Rank team this season, they are 0-4 with an average margin of defeat of 19.5 points.
