The 40-32 Suns will host the 44-28 Nuggets tonight. The Suns have listed Grayson Allen as Questionable and Royce O’Neal as Probable. Mark Williams, Amir Coffey, Haywood Highsmith, and Dillon Brooks will be Out. The Nuggets have listed Peyton Watson as out.
The Nuggets are 5.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook with the total for this game set at 229.5 points.
Suns vs. Nuggets prediction, preview
Denver still looks like the sturdier team in this matchup because the Nuggets’ offense is a well oiled machine. They’re first in OFFRTG at 120.2, sixth in NETRTG at 4.4, first in eFG% at 57.3, and first in AST/TO ratio at 2.2. Nikola Jokic has, once again, created one of the league’s most efficient half court offenses. They’re scoring 120.8 PPG alongside 28.5 APG with a 11.6% turnover rate. This is a tough combo to deal with. Jokic is the hub, obviously, but the bigger point is how the roster fits around him. Jamal Murray gives them a second shot creator who can punish switches and play off the ball, Aaron Gordon thrives as the cutter/finisher who benefits from all the attention Jokić draws, and Christian Braun gives them another downhill piece who fits the low mistake style. Denver is not a random heat check offense. It is a possession-by-possession machine that keeps generating paint touches, kick outs, and clean reads until something breaks.
Phoenix is a little more complicated because the Suns have some real strengths, but the roster is thinner and more volatile at the moment. They come in 40-32 and just snapped a five-game losing streak by beating Toronto 120-98, and there are still some strong markers here. They’re 10th in DEFRTG at 112.8 and sixth in offensive rebounding percentage at 33%, while allowing 111.0 PPG. But the way the pieces fit is much shakier than Denver’s. Devin Booker is still the lead organizer and toughest half court shotmaker on the roster, while Jalen Green gives them more burst and rim pressure than they had in past versions of this team. The problem is that Phoenix is missing a lot of connective support around them. The injury report listed Dillon Brooks, Amir Coffey, Haywood Highsmith, and Mark Williams as out, with Grayson Allen Questionable and Royce O’Neale Probable. That matters because those are the kinds of players who stabilize lineups or keep the spacing clean enough for Booker and Green to operate. Currently, though, the Suns can look like a team surviving on talent bursts instead of one flowing from action to action, which is a dangerous place to live against Denver.
Suns vs. Nuggets pick, best Bet
Best Bet: DEN Nuggets Moneyline -245
Phoenix has been strong ATS overall with 43-29, and 28-16 with one day off, so there’s a case here that the Suns have some resiliency to overcome the talent and health gap tonight. Unfortunately, I’m still rolling with Denver due to their robust offensive ecosystem and pure starpower behind the league’s best player, Nikola Jokic.
