The Miami Open is on to the Round of 16. One of the biggest matches of the day sees World No. 2 Jannik Sinner take on World No. 40 Alex Michelsen. The match begins at 4:00. p.m. ET.
Sinner is -2200 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook, while Michelsen is +1380. This is my best bet to target for the Sinner vs. Michelsen match.
Jannik Sinner vs. Alex Michelsen Preview
Alex Michelsen is playing some of the best tennis of his young career over the past few weeks. Last year, he proved he has great potential by becoming the youngest American man since Andy Roddick to reach a Canada Masters quarterfinal. Michelsen also made it to the fourth round of the 2025 Australian Open. He has made it clear that hardcourt is his best surface, especially with his wins in the Sunshine Double this year. At Indian Wells, Michelsen pulled off a nice upset over Ugo Humbert, and he followed that up with an amazing upset win over fellow American Taylor Fritz. Michelsen ended up losing to Daniil Medvedev in the Round of 16. Here in Miami, Michelsen pulled off another great upset over the in-form Jack Draper and has now made back-to-back Round of 16 appearances. It would be by far the biggest win of his career to take down Jannik Sinner, however.
Jannik Sinner has been back at the top of his game over the last few weeks. Sinner started the year with a disappointing Australian Open semifinal loss to Novak Djokovic. He followed that up with an early quarterfinal exit from the Qatar Open. However, at Indian Wells, Sinner showed why he is so great, claiming his first title in Tennis Paradise. He is riding that momentum in Miami, dominating his way through the field. Sinner took down Corentin Moutet 6-1, 6-4 to advance to the Round of 16. He has now gone 13 straight matches without dropping a set in Masters 1000 play, a new ATP record.
Jannik Sinner looks frankly unbeatable at the moment. However, it might take someone with nothing to lose, like the young American Alex Michelsen, to finally break Sinner’s streak.
Jannik Sinner vs. Alex Michelsen Pick, Best Bet
My best bet for this match is on Alex Michelsen +5.5 games. Jannik Sinner is on a record-breaking run of dominance at Masters 1000 events. He just refuses to drop a set. While he is heavily favored to win this match 2:0 as well, that doesn’t mean Michelsen won’t keep the sets close. These two players have only met in a best-of-three match once before, at the Cincinnati Masters in 2024. Sinner won that match 2:0, but it came by a score of 6-4. 7-5. Michelsen hung in there against Sinner and kept it within this 5.5-game spread.
If Michelsen can be highly competitive in one of the sets, forcing a tiebreaker or even a 6-4 or 7-5 set, it gives him a lot of flexibility to just be remotely competitive in a second set. Michelsen is in great form, playing on his preferred surface, in front of an American fanbase. While he is likely not at the stage of his career where he can beat Jannik Sinner in a match like this, he should be ready to make this a real fight.
