The USC Trojans (18-13, 9-9 Big Ten) and South Carolina Gamecocks (32-3, 15-1 SEC) will face off in the second round of the NCAA women’s basketball tournament on Monday, going head-to-head at Colonial Life Arena. The No. 1 seed vs. No. 9 seed showdown will tip off at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT on ESPN.
The Gamecocks are 23.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook with -10000 Moneyline odds. The total is set at 133.5 points.
USC vs. South Carolina Preview, Prediction
USC Preview
Losing JuJu Watkins to a torn ACL last March put a damper on the Trojans’ 2025-26 season, but not all was lost. USC went 8-3 in nonconference action, only losing to South Carolina, Notre Dame and UConn. A 1-6 stretch in January nearly tanked the Trojans’ campaign, but they immediately bounced back with a six-game winning streak and an upset over Iowa. And although USC entered the NCAA tournament on a four-game losing streak, they were able to notch a 71-67 overtime win against Clemson in the opening round.
Freshman Jazzy Davidson dropped 31 points in that win over the Tigers, bringing her average up to 18.0 points per game on the season. Georgia Tech transfer Kara Dunn also helped ease the loss of Watkins with 15.5 points a night. Only two other Trojans average more than 3.5 points per game – sophomore Kennedy Smith and UCLA transfer Londynn Jones with 11.6 and 10.2, respectively.
That top-heavy rotation ranks No. 8 in blocks per game and No. 37 in assists per game, nationally. Teams don’t shoot—or make—too many threes against USC, which is one of their defense’s better traits.
The Trojans rank No. 22 in the updated Bart Torvik ratings, owning the No. 39 offense and No. 8 defense. As for the NET rankings, USC comes in at No. 22. The program is 5-12 against Quad 1, 2-0 against Quad 2, 2-1 against Quad 3 and 8-0 against Quad 4. Monday’s game against South Carolina constitutes a Quad 1 matchup.
South Carolina Preview
After coming one win short of defending their title last season, the Gamecocks bounced right back and earned their sixth-straight No. 1 seed. Early-season wins over USC and Duke set the tone for Dawn Staley’s squad, even if a two-point loss to Texas spoiled their pursuit of a perfect season. Still, South Carolina marched through SEC play and claimed their 10th regular season conference title in 13 years. However, the Longhorns won in the SEC Tournament finals.
Forward Joyce Edwards took a big leap her sophomore year, earning All-American honors by putting up 19.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.7 steals and 1.1 blocks per game. She shares a frontcourt with Mississippi State transfer Madina Okot and her 13.5 points, 10.8 rebounds, 1.5 blocks and 1.4 steals a night. Two-time national champion Raven Johnson runs the backcourt with 10.1 points and 5.4 assists per game, while Florida State transfer Raven Johnson and junior sharpshooter Tessa Johnson round out the starting five. Underclassmen Agot Makeer, Maddy McDaniel, Ayla McDowell and Alicia Tournebize provide reinforcements off the bench, although McDaniel missed the first round with an illness.
Across the board, the Gamecocks are elite. They rank top-10 nationally in limiting turnovers, winning the free throw battle, hitting shots and forcing misses. They do rank outside the top 300 in three-point rate, however, leaning much more on their efficiency in the paint.
Per the latest Bart Torvik ratings, the Gamecocks rank No. 4 on offense, No. 3 on defense, and No. 4 overall. They come in at No. 3 in the NET, going 12-3 against Quad 1, 7-0 against Quad 2, 3-0 against Quad 3 and 9-0 against Quad 4. Monday’s game versus USC constitutes a Quad 1 matchup.
USC vs. South Carolina Pick, Best Bet
When the Trojans and Gamecocks went head-to-head back in November, South Carolina won by 17 points. That game took place at Crypto.com Arena, though, and the rematch is set to tip off in Columbia. Each of the Gamecocks’ three losses this year came in neutral and away games, all while they have won 21 straight at home. Looking at teams that South Carolina has played multiple times, they beat Alabama by 19 on the road and 26 at home, then Kentucky by four on the road and 23 in the SEC tournament.
South Carolina beat Southern by 69 points in round one. In 2025, they followed up a 60-point first-round win with an 11-point second-round win. However, they notably beat North Carolina by 47 back in the 2024 Round of 32.
When facing top-40 teams in the Bart Torvik T-Rank this season, the Gamecocks have won by 24-plus points just four times in 18 opportunities. As for the Trojans, they have lost by 24-plus points three times. Unsurprisingly, those three blowout losses came against eventual No. 1 seeds in UCLA, UConn and South Carolina. USC’s second matchup with UCLA was a 23-point loss, too, and that was at home.
I’m taking the Gamecocks to cover at home, giving their fans a raucous sendoff before they push for yet another championship. If Staley can draw up a gameplan to limit Davidson, South Carolina should win this in a runaway.
