The NBA has 10 games lined up for a full Monday night basketball slate, and in the first game of the Peacock/NBCSN doubleheader, the Miami Heat host the San Antonio Spurs at the Kaseya Center. The matchup is one of the four games that tips off at 7:00 p.m. ET to get the evening off to a fast start. This nonconference matchup features two teams in playoff position, so it should be an exciting and intense matchup. Let’s break it down and find a few strong player prop bets to consider from each side of this Spurs-Heat matchup.
Overall in the matchup, the Spurs are 4.5-point road favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with an elevated game total of 244.5 points.
The Spurs have won 21 of their last 23 games to climb to 53-18, which has them second in the Western Conference, three games behind the Thunder. They beat the Heat back on Oct. 30 in the first game of this season series, winning 107-101. The Heat enter the rematch 38-33 after dropping four straight right after winning seven straight. Miami is currently No. 9 in the Eastern Conference but is just one game behind the Hawks, who start the day with the No. 6 seed just outside the Play-In Tournament. The Heat will look to finish the season strong and get a more favorable draw in the postseason.
Of note on the injury report for Monday night, Stephon Castle was upgraded to available but Devin Vassell remains questionable for the Spurs. On the Heat side, Norman Powell, Pelle Larsson, Andrew Wiggins, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Nikola Jovic were all upgraded to available as well.
Spurs at Heat Best Prop Bets
Bam Adebayo o21.5 Points (-122)
Adebayo made plenty of waves for his 83-point performance against the Wizards just under two weeks ago. While he obviously smashed this points prop in that game, he has been consistently getting at least 22 points over the last few weeks. While getting all the other scoring options will take some of the work off him, he still has a good chance to get over this prop line on Monday night.
In each of his last 11 games, Adebayo has scored at least 20 points and has gone over this prop line in eight matchups while averaging 29.9 points per game. Obviously, that average is skewed by his monster game against the Wizards, and the Spurs will be a much tougher opponent. However, he also had 31 points in his first matchup against the Spurs this season, showing he can take it to the tough matchup against Wemby.
The Heat took a tough loss on Saturday despite Bam going off for 32 points and 21 rebounds against the Rockets, and they’ll look to get back in the win column as they return home for what should be a high-scoring showdown with San Antonio.
Dylan Harper 12+ Points (+152)
Even with Castle upgraded to available, Harper could still find enough work to deliver the over in this alternate points line, especially if Castle plays fewer minutes or Devin Vassell (hamstring) is limited or out. The Spurs’ rookie has been very effective lately, often getting more minutes and usage in blowouts or games veterans have missed for rest purposes.
Harper had 24 points in 28 minutes on Saturday against the Pacers with Castle out and he has scored at least 12 points in three of his last four games and seven of his last 12.
Coming off the bench, the No. 2 pick in last year’s NBA Draft is producing 11.4 points in his 58 games this season, and in an up-tempo track meet like Monday could be, I love his chances to get on the scoreboard for at least a dozen.
Pelle Larsson u17.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-117)
With Wiggins, Powell, Jaquez and Jovic back in the mix, Larsson will likely have a greatly reduced role for Miami. He has gone over this prop line in four of his last five games while picking up extra work, but he will likely come off the bench with fewer minutes and lower usage.
In his four games with Wiggins, Jaquez, Jovic, Powell and Tyler Herro available, Larsson is averaging 5.75 points, 3.25 rebounds and 1.25 assists for only 10.25 PRA (points, rebounds and assists). With those players in reduced minutes and after his recent success, he has the potential for more work on Monday, but he is still likely to stay under this PRA total.
Bonus Parlay Pick: Stephon Castle o13.5 Assists + Rebounds (-104)
If you’re building an SGP (Same Game Parlay) from this Monday night matchup, one way to boost the odds even higher is by adding in the over on Castle’s assists and rebounds. Adding this as the fourth player prop into the mix boosts the SGP all the way up to +1300 for these four Heat-Spurs bets.
Castle missed the last two games with right hip soreness, but he had over this number of assists and rebounds in four straight games before coming up just short with 13 in his most recent contest. He went over this prop line in six of his previous eight games before that and should be rested and ready for this fast-paced game in Miami. He could potentially be eased back in, but especially if Vassell is out, don’t be surprised if he steps right back into an involved role and steps up in this big game as he has all season in the Spurs’ biggest matchups. This is a slightly higher-risk play than I usually use for a bonus parlay pick, but I love the boost it brings to the parlay.
