Just four years ago, the Golden State Warriors were the best team in basketball, out-lasting the Boston Celtics in six games to win their fourth title in seven seasons. Two years ago, the Dallas Mavericks had a chance to do the same, losing to Boston in five games in the NBA Finals. Both teams’ recent success is a reminder of just how fast fortunes can change in the NBA.
The teams will face off tonight at 9:30 p.m. ET, and Dallas would be eliminated from postseason contention with a loss. Of course, the writing has been on the wall for a long time for the Mavericks, but a defeat would make it official.
A quick glance at the injury report helps explain why each team has struggled as of late. For the Warriors, Stephen Curry (knee), Seth Curry (adductor), Al Horford (soleus), Jimmy Butler III (ACL), and Quinten Post (foot) are out, with Moses Moody (wrist) questionable. Dallas, meanwhile, will continue to be without Kyrie Irving (ACL), Dereck Lively II (foot), and likely Brandon Williams (concussion), with Caleb Martin (heel) questionable.
Golden State is a 1.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-130 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 230.5. Meanwhile, the Mavericks are +110 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this matchup of embattled teams and offer a prediction.
Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks preview, prediction
The Warriors never projected to be much of a contender regardless, but their season took a dramatic turn on January 19, when Butler crashed to the ground after tearing his ACL. Then, on February 1, Curry was ruled out with patellofemoral pain syndrome in his right knee, and Golden State has won just six times since, losing 15. The Warriors did make one notable move at the trade deadline, moving on from Jonathan Kuminga and bringing in Kristaps Porziņġis, but the Latvian has continued to battle illness and is posting just 42-29-80 shooting splits.
Dallas has somehow been worse as of late. Since January 22, the Mavericks have won just four times, going 4-22 overall. First overall pick Cooper Flagg’s injury didn’t help — he missed eight games in the middle of that stretch with a foot sprain — but he hasn’t been perfect, either, posting just a 42.2% effective field goal percentage since his return. Dallas has been experimenting with a variety of different role players around its franchise star, and Naji Marshall has shone the brightest, scoring 25 or more points in three of his last four games.
Warriors at Mavericks pick, best bet
It’ll be a battle of movable object against stoppable force tonight, regardless of which team has the ball. Since February 1, Golden State ranks 25th in offensive rating and 22nd in defensive rating, only marginally ahead of the Mavericks (28th in ORTG, 27th in DRTG) on both sides of the ball. The only area in which either of these teams has remotely thrived in recent weeks is the Warriors’ ball movement; they lead the league in assist percentage across that span, which, in large part, is a result of Steve Kerr’s system.
Both teams should be pretty effective on their drives. Since the start of February, Dallas has allowed the league’s fourth-highest field goal percentage on restricted-area shots and Golden State the seventh-highest, and though the Warriors have done a slightly better job keeping opponents away from the basket than the Mavericks have, that might not be the case with Porziņġis, whom opponents have been unafraid to test this season. Dallas has been able to get to the rim at slightly higher frequency, but Golden State has been the better finishing team, so overall, the Warriors should have a slight edge.
The Mavericks should be able to make up some of that advantage on the glass. Dallas certainly isn’t an elite rebounding team, ranking 14th in rebounding percentage since the start of February, but Golden State — which ranks just 27th since Curry’s injury and will be without a solid rebounder in Post — is an awful one. Th Warriors have had a slight edge in transition because they’ve been better at forcing turnovers, but neither has been particularly good on either side of the ball. The Mavericks should have a huge advantage in the foul game, as they’ve been extremely disciplined and Golden State has done a horrible job getting to the line.
Still, the Warriors should win as long as they hit their shots. Even without Curry’s gravity, Golden State leads the league in wide-open threes per game since the start of February, making it a dream matchup against a Dallas defense that has allowed the fifth-most uncontested triples across that span. Meanwhile, the Warriors have allowed wide-open threes at the seventh-lowest rate, and the Mavericks have been the league’s worst at generating such shots. Even without Curry, Golden State has more raw shooting talent; Moody and Brandin Podziemski both hit their threes at a rate higher than expected, and while Max Christie and Klay Thompson are good shooters, Flagg, P.J. Washington, and Marshall have all been among the league’s worst.
Home-court advantage could matter, given that it amounts to a net swing of 7.1 points per 100 possessions in Dallas’ favor relative to the same game at the Chase Center, but Kerr’s three-point-oriented scheme and the Mavericks’ struggles to close out on the perimeter as of late suggests that the Warriors should be able to overcome that. Golden State also has less incentive to lose, since it’s effectively locked into the Play-In Tournament. The Warriors will win by multiple possessions.
