No. 2 UConn vs. No. 7 UCLA College Basketball prediction, preview (8:45 ET on Sunday in Philadelphia, PA)
UConn entered NCAA Tournament play on a ridiculous 14-0 ATS streak in NCAA Tournament games, dating back through its consecutive championship seasons. However, that streak came to an end late on Friday night, with an 11-point win over Furman in the first round.
For as strong of a season as the Huskies have had, they are one of the worst teams at covering the spread in college basketball — 12-23 ATS. After getting off to another tremendous start, Dan Hurley and the Huskies have been human since early February. Over its last 12 games, UConn is just 8-4 outright and 4-8 ATS.
UConn owns two obvious advantages in the game — defense and rebounding. The Huskies ranks significantly higher in rebound rate, and rank 14th in defensive efficiency on KenPom. The Bruins aren’t bad defensively, but rank 44th in efficiency by the same metrics. That said, UConn ranks just 30th in offensive efficiency, and has slipped as the season has gone on. UCLA ranks 23rd in offensive efficiency, and has been a top-six offense nationally over the last six weeks.
While UCLA has struggled in true road games, the Bruins have played well as an underdog in all other settings — 6-1 ATS with four outright wins. They’ve covered four in a row as a dog, and won three of them outright. UCLA is 5-1 ATS over its last six games overall, and in a first round highlighted by the bad beats on teams like North Carolina and Santa Clara, if you watched UCLA and UCF, you saw that the Bruins were the correct side in the game.
Injuries could also play a role in this one. Tyler Bilodeau hurt his knee during the Big Ten Tournament, and hasn’t played since. He’s questionable to return, and while his size would be a much needed boost against UConn, it’s probably unlikely he plays. The Huskies were missing Silas Demary and Jaylin Stewart against Furman, and are both questionable for Sunday night.
These teams both play at the slowest tempos in the country, which should play towards the underdog. I like UCLA to hang in and make this a game, with a chance to win it down the stretch.
