Play the music! The 2026 NCAA Tournament continues this weekend with the second round. With the March Madness field thinned to 32 remaining teams across 16 matchups, the pressure cooker of this environment is beginning to build for each program still left dancing.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders survived what many people picked as a traditional 5/12 upset in round one, but they face a much tougher test in this one. The Alabama Crimson Tide have one of the best offenses in college basketball, so we’re looking at a potential boat race of a game here.
Prepare for Sunday’s game with a Texas Tech vs. Alabama prediction, pick and more on DraftKings Sportsbook ahead of the 9:45 p.m. EST opening tip.
Texas Tech vs. Alabama prediction, preview
Texas Tech Red Raiders
The Red Raiders advanced to 23-10 on the campaign with Friday’s win over Akron, a game which they took handily in a 91-71 finish that opened up in the second half. While they survived the first round in the absence of leading scorer and rebounder JT Toppin (out for the season with a torn ACL), this’ll be a much more strenuous battle against a far better team. In particular, Texas Tech still sits 7-9 against Quad 1 teams like Alabama.
The Red Raiders are 19th in the updated KenPom rankings with a +25.77 NETRTG. They’re still flashing some elite performances on offense at times and are 10th in ORTG with 80.4 PPG; it’s just a matter of when they’re able to reach that kind of production without their best player. Still, they’re fourth in 3P% at the Division I level with a 39.3% mark and make the fifth-most threes per game (11.5) with the 18th-most attempts, truly leaning on the perimeter game. The Red Raiders shoot 46.7% from the field overall and are respectable in passing as well, recording 15.8 assists per outing with a 1.465 AST/TO ratio that’s good for 53rd. Defense and rebounding aren’t elite, but they’re not bad either with 72.6 PPG allowed, the 33rd-ranked DRTG and 36.9 boards a game (70th).
Guard Christian Anderson has stepped up with a star’s workload to the tune of 18.9 points and 7.6 assists per game, plus a 42.5% 3P%. Donovan Atwell brings 13.5 points with a 45.4% mark from deep, and LeJuan Watts averages 11.5 points with a team-best 6.0 rebounds. Yet it was Jaylen Petty who shouldered the load in the opening round with a 24-point performance after averaging just 9.5 PPG on the full campaign.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Coming out of the SEC, Alabama is 24-9 on the campaign and also put forth a 20-point win in the opening round. The Crimson Tide downed Hofstra 90-70 in their first game but were also challenged in the first half, holding just a 37-35 lead heading into the break. They went 7-7 against Quad 1 teams this season as well.
The Tide rank 16th in NetRtg per KenPom at +26.20. They’re a team which pours on the points but practically can’t win unless the game is a shootout. Alabama’s 91.7 PPG are the most in the NCAA and the team sits third in ORtg as well. The Crimson Tide shoot 45.8% from the field and 35.8% from three, neither of which are truly elite marks. However, they’re third in FGA per game and lead the sport in both 3PA and 3PM, too. They’re also dishing 16.1 assists with a 1.649 AST/TO ratio, and their 40.6 rebounds per contest are eighth most. The other side of the ball is a concern to say the least, though. Alabama allows 83.5 PPG, 352nd in Division 1, with the 65th-ranked DRtg at that. The scoring mark comes as a result of the tempo the program plays at, making the elite offense a double-edged sword of sorts.
Labaron Philon Jr. averages a whopping 21.7 points and 4.7 assists per game for the Crimson Tide, shooting 40.2% from deep and coming off a 29-point performance in the first round. Latrell Wrightsell brings 12.8 points while Amari Allen and Aiden Sherrell average over 11.0 PPG with 7.1 and 6.1 rebounds. However, the suspension of Aden Holloway for off-court reasons looms as the team looks to replace his 16.8 PPG and elite three-point shooting.
Texas Tech vs. Alabama pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists Texas Tech as a slight 1.5-point favorite in this one with -118 odds on the Moneyline. Alabama enters as a small ML underdog at -102 odds with the game total set at 164.5 combined points.
The Red Raiders survived a game many people picked them to lose in the opening round, but they may not be so lucky this time around. These are a couple of elite offenses with both among the sport’s best from beyond the arc. Here’s the deal. If TTU can hit shots from deep, then the unit stands a chance of hanging around with Bama. If those shots don’t fall or if Anderson has a poor game, then the Red Raiders will be sent packing back to Lubbock. Really, it’s as simple as that since the Crimson Tide have more scoring across their roster and are better on the glass with more size on the inside. This should be a high-scoring game and both teams have a path to a win, but the upside of Texas Tech remains capped without Toppin. I expect Alabama to survive and advance.
Best Bet: Alabama ML (-102)
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