The NCAA Tournament is in full swing with the opening round in the books and the first day of second-round action complete. But the action continues with the final eight slots in the Sweet 16 up for grabs as the Sunday matchups take place. Facing off in the Midwest region, the Tennessee Volunteers will take on the Virginia Cavaliers.
Tennessee cruised past Miami OH in its opening matchup with a 78-56 win. Virginia was unable to pull away at the same level, but defeated Wright State 82-73 to survive and advance.
Tennessee enters as a narrow 1.5-point favorite and holds -118 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. Virginia holds -102 odds on the moneyline, with the game total set at O/U 137.5 points.
Tennessee vs. Virginia prediction, preview
The Tennessee Volunteers are 23-11 on the season. They shot 53% from the floor and 45% on three-point attempts in the opening round matchup against Miami OH, while out-rebounding them 42-25. Tennessee was never able to truly deliver the knockout blow, but comfortably controlled the matchup with Miami OH looking largely overmatched. On the season, Tennessee has gone 15-19 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 18 of its 34 games played.
Rick Barnes’ squad ranks 92nd in the country in scoring by averaging in 79.4 points per contest. They also rank 48th in offensive rating, 101st in field goal percentage, and 193rd in three-point percentage. Opponents are scoring 69 points per game against Tennessee, which ranks 55th in the country. The Volunteers also rank 54th in defensive rating, 29th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 23rd in opponents’ three-point percentage.
Ja’Kobi Gillespie headlines the production with 18.3 points and 5.6 assists per game. Nate Ament adds 17 points and 6.5 rebounds per game, but went scoreless in the opening NCAA Tournament matchup. He is reportedly dealing with an ankle injury that caused him to sit out the home stretch of the matchup. J.P. Estrella is the lone other player to average in double figures with 10.2 points and 5.4 rebounds.
The Virginia Cavaliers are 30-5 on the season, with their losses coming against Duke (twice), North Carolina, Virginia Tech in 3OT, and Butler. It was a more competitive matchup with Wright State than Virginia preferred. They ultimately won 82-73, but Wright State led for 41% of the matchup, and Virginia was never able to extend a lead beyond nine points. On the season, Virginia is 18-17 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 19 of its 35 games played.
Ryan Odom’s squad averages 80.7 points per game, which ranks 71st in the country. Virginia also ranks 25th in offensive rating, 103rd in field goal percentage, and 46th in three-point percentage. Opponents are scoring 68.5 points per game, which ranks 49th among DI teams. The Cavaliers also rank 52nd in defensive rating, 13th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 44th in opponents’ three-point percentage.
Thijs De Ridder headlines the production with 15.4 points and 6.2 rebounds per game. Malik Thomas adds 12.4 points and 3.9 rebounds, while Sam Lewis is the lone other player to average in double figures with 10.8 points per game while shooting 40.9% from three. Jacari White exploded for a season-high 26 points off the bench in the opening round victory, well above his season averages of 9.3 points per game.
Tennessee vs. Virginia pick, best bet
I am backing Virginia to win outright as my best bet in this matchup. The Cavaliers did not put forth an impressive performance in the opening round, but they will bounce back against Tennessee.
While the scoreboard looked better, Tennessee’s play was a bit concerning in the opening round. It felt as if they were daring Miami OH to go on a run, and if they had shot better than 35% from the field and 24% on threes, the Redhawks would have had a chance at an upset. This lack of killer instinct has been a concern all season, and is a major reason for their 15-19 ATS record. Ament’s scoreless performance and injury issues will also be a much bigger concern against Virginia. Miami OH was unable to exploit these vulnerabilities, but Virginia absolutely can.
Tennessee also ranks 212th in the country in turnovers per game and shoots below 70% at the free-throw line as a team, which could each prove to be a major issue in this tight matchup.
