In March, the storylines often write themselves. That’s the case on Sunday afternoon in San Diego. St. John’s (29-6, 18-2), champions of the Big East, continued to dominate during a 79-53 first round victory over Northern Iowa. Kansas (24-10, 12-6) survived a late scare from Cal Baptist on Friday en route to a tournament-opening victory. These two historic programs, led by Hall of Fame head coaches, now meet with a trip to the Sweet 16 hanging in the balance.
St. John’s enters as 3.5-point favorites (-108) over Kansas. The total is set at 144.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Tip-off is scheduled for 5:15 p.m. ET. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Sunday’s game between the Red Storm and the Jayhawks.
St. John’s vs. Kansas prediction, preview
The Johnnies have been on an absolute heater, winning 20 of their last 21 contests. If not for a ghastly showing vs. UConn in February, the last two months would be nothing short of flawless. Unlike in years past, this group can score with the best of them. St. John’s wields an adjusted offensive efficiency of 120.4, 38th-best in the nation on KenPom. The Red Storm are averaging 81.5 points per game, second-most in the Big East. On the other end of the floor, they’ve allowed 69.5 points per game, third-fewest in the conference and 62nd-lowest in all of college basketball.
In a matchup rife with narratives, none are stronger than Zuby Ejiofor. The former Kansas recruit left his old program after a lackluster freshman campaign in Lawrence. Since then, the senior has taken his game to new heights with St. John’s. Ejiofor took home Big East Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year this season. Through 35 games this season, the center is averaging 16.3 points, 7.3 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game while shooting 55% from the field. On defense, he’s notched 1.2 steals and 2.2 blocks. There’s no way the superstar doesn’t come out motivated in this one.
With that being said, Ejiofor isn’t even the most talented player taking the floor. Highly touted NBA Draft prospect Darryn Peterson is an absolute force. The freshman phenom was a menace on Friday, dropping 28 points vs. Cal Baptist. When healthy, the guard is a statistical monster. In 23 games this season, Peterson has recorded 20.1 points, 4.2 rebounds and 1.7 assists to go with 44/38/83 shooting splits. Keep in mind, he’s delivered those numbers despite averaging just under 29 minutes a night. In a must-win showdown, Peterson won’t have much time to rest.
The issue with Bill Self’s squad is consistency. Kansas has had its peaks, such as taking down Arizona and Iowa State. There have also been valleys; see the team’s double-digit defeats to Arizona State and Cincinnati. One thing is for certain: the Jayhawks will give maximum effort. Their adjusted defensive efficiency of 93.7 is eighth-best on KenPom. However, they rank 58th on the other end of the court (118.0). It’s also a top-heavy roster; just five names on KU are putting up more than 4.8 points per game. In comparison, St. John’s has seven such players.
St. John’s vs. Kansas pick, best bet
Ultimately, the difference in this one likely comes down to supporting cast. Peterson can take over at any given moment, but Kansas’ depth is a major issue. In comparison, St. John’s has multiple ways to exploit opposing defenses. Even if Ejiofor is held in check, scorers such as Bryce Hopkins, Ian Jackson and Oziyah Sellers are threats. Overqualified bench pieces Joson Sanon and Dylan Darling can’t be overlooked, either. It’s also worth mentioning that the Red Storm are 33rd in total rebounding percentage (53.1%). The Jayhawks are 106th in that category (51.4%). A deeper, more physical Johnnies crew has the edge in this one.
Best Bet: St. John’s -3.5 (-108)
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