Play the music! The 2026 NCAA Tournament continues this weekend with the second round. With the March Madness field thinned to 32 remaining teams across 16 matchups, the pressure cooker of this environment is beginning to build for each program still left dancing.
No. 2 Iowa State will face off against No. 7 Kentucky in the next part of the bracket for the right to move on and enter the Sweet 16. There are more questions surrounding this matchup than answers though, especially due to a major injury for the Cyclones that could create some serious issues heading into this date against the Wildcats.
Prepare for Sunday’s game with a Kentucky vs. Iowa State prediction, pick and more on DraftKings Sportsbook ahead of the 2:45 p.m. EST opening tip.
Kentucky vs. Iowa State prediction, preview
Kentucky Wildcats
At 21-13 overall, the No. 7 Wildcats punched a ticket into the Round of 32 with a hard-fought battle against Santa Clara that nearly saw quite the upset take place. That game went into overtime as Kentucky trailed 31-29 at half and went down to the wire with a buzzer-beating shot just to keep the season alive. The Wildcats are just 6-11 against Quad 1 teams now, so the questions about their chances to advance are certainly worth asking as things stand.
Kentucky falls 28th in the KenPom rankings with a +21.72 NETRTG and top-40 marks in both ORTG and DRTG. The Wildcats score 81.0 PPG and are 37th in ORTG, shooting 46.6 from the field and 34.2% from distance. They record 16.1 assists and have a 1.530 AST/TO ratio that ranks 40th in the sport as well. On the glass, they bring down 37.6 rebounds per game, good for 52nd. The defense is arguably what Kentucky leans on though, since while 74.1 PPG allowed to opponents isn’t exactly stellar, the program is 27th in DRTG. Opponents have an eFG% of 48.8% against the Wildcats, who are also 30th in blocks per game with 4.6.
Otega Oweh leads the team in scoring with 18.7 PPG and played the role of hero in the opening round, hitting the tying shot to force overtime. Denzel Aberdeen is the only other player in double digits with 13.3 points and a team-high 3.5 assists, but there are a couple of other key contributors as well. Collin Chandler brings 9.8 PPG with a 41.0% 3P%, and Mouhamed Dioubate also averages 9.0 points with 5.6 rebounds a night.
Iowa State Cyclones
Iowa State competed in a tough Big 12 this season and brings a 28-7 record into this contest after its first-round win. The Cyclones, a No. 2 seed, demolished No. 15 Tennessee State 108-74 in one of the biggest blowouts of this bracket. Typically, that may leave bettors feeling encouraged moving forward when combined with an 8-7 record against Quad 1 teams. An ankle sprain that All-American Joshua Jefferson suffered in the first round may seriously damper the vibes though, especially with reporting that he’s unlikely to play.
The Cyclones are sixth in the nation with a +32.68 NETRTG per the latest KenPom rankings. They’re averaging 82.5 PPG, 31st in Division I, and their ORTG comes in at 17th. Iowa State brings efficient scoring with a 49.1% FG% (16th) and a 38.9% 3P% (seventh), dishing 17.4 assists (15th) with a 1.694 AST/TO ratio (14th). The offense is great, and the Cyclones are also strong on the other side of things as well. They concede 65.4 PPG, 10th fewest, and they’re fifth best in DEFRTG at that. Their 35.8 rebounds are a pretty pedestrian mark, but generating turnovers is a major strength with the fifth most of them for this defense.
If Jefferson doesn’t play, the Cyclones will surely miss their leading rebounder (7.4 boards per game) and second-leading scorer (16.4 points). That could mean even more responsibility for Milan Momcilovic, who paces the roster with 17.1 PPG and a ridiculous 49.4% 3P%. Tamin Lipsey scores 12.9 points a night with 4.9 assists and 2.2 steals. Killyan Toure and Blake Buchanan also play key roles in this rotation with 8.5 points apiece.
Kentucky vs. Iowa State pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists Iowa State as a slight 4.5-point favorite in this one with -218 odds on the Moneyline. Kentucky enters as a ML underdog at +180 odds with the game total set at 145.5 combined points.
It’s probably best to prepare for a world in which Jefferson doesn’t play, at least given the reporting as of the time this article was written. Iowa State should still win this one thanks to its two-way excellence, even despite the fact that the big man is central to the Cyclones’ attack and is one of the better passers at his position with 4.9 assists a game, something you don’t see all that often among 6-foot-9 guys. Kentucky can certainly hang around, but the 4.5-point margin still isn’t very wide. The Wildcats have an average scoring margin of -5.59 against Quad 1 teams and are just 18-17 ATS on the campaign. Compare that to a Cyclones group that’s covered 21 times overall and is 7-1 ATS at neutral sites — even without their star big, they’re a better team in almost every way.
Best Bet: Iowa State -4.5 (-115)
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