A first-round win over Clemson has sent #9 Iowa (22-12, 10-10) to the Round of 32. If the Hawkeyes are going to reach the Sweet 16, they’ll need to get through the defending champions. It’s been a terrific title defense for #1 Florida (27-7, 16-2). Following their first-round triumph over Prairie View A&M, can the Gators take down a Big Ten foe?
Florida enters as 10.5-point favorites (-105) over Iowa. The total is set at 145.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Sunday’s game between the Hawkeyes and the Gators.
Iowa vs. Florida prediction, preview
Few players in college basketball are more responsible for their team’s success than Bennett Stirtz. This season, the guard has posted 19.9 points, 2.6 rebounds and 4.4 assists. To boot, he’s shooting an efficient 48% from the field and 37% from three-point range. However, Tavion Banks is the only other Iowa player averaging 10+ points per game.
That’s not to say the Hawkeyes are bereft of supporting talent alongside their superstar. It’s just that the rest of this roster tends to play their best on the other end of the floor. Iowa ranks 31st in adjusted defensive efficiency (99.6) on KenPom. In addition, the team’s offense operates at the fifth-slowest adjusted tempo (62.9) in college basketball. A knack for forcing turnovers only makes possessions even harder to come by for opponents.
The Hawkeyes are a big, physical group; they are 42nd in the nation with a 78.4″ average height. With that being said, the Gators are 12th at 78.9″. It’s not just that the defending champs have big men; their entire roster revolves around them. 6’9″ Thomas Haugh (17.0 PPG, 6.2 REB) and 6’11” Alex Condon (14.9 PPG, 7.5 REB) are UF’s leading scorers. SEC Defensive Player of the Year Reuben Chinyelu paces the conference with 11.5 rebounds per game. Don’t forget about the back court, carried by high-octane scorers Boogie Fland (11.2 PPG) and Xaivian Lee (11.4 PPG).
If the Gators have an Achilles’ heel, it’s from beyond the arc. They’ve only connected on 31.2% of their three-point attempts, 315th out of 365 Division I schools. Still, Todd Golden’s crew has notched college basketball’s ninth-best adjusted offensive efficiency (125.9). That’s due in large part to the sport’s second-highest offensive rebounding rate (43.2%). In comparison, Iowa is tied for college basketball’s 80th-best defensive rebounding rate (73.8%).
Iowa vs. Florida pick, best bet
Which version of Iowa will we get tonight? The school that took down Nebraska and nearly Michigan, or the one that dropped games to Penn State and Maryland? The downside of playing at a glacial speed is that it also puts pressure on your own offense. Against a Gators defense that makes life difficult down low, all the pressure is on IU’s shooting. In that regard, the Hawkeyes are a decent, but unspectacular, 35.3% from three-point range. In a showdown with Florida’s battle-tested squad, that’s not going to cut it.
Best Bet: Florida -10.5 (-105)
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