The NCAA Tournament is off to the races with the Round of 64 complete and half the tickets to the Sweet 16 punched. However, eight more games are scheduled to take place across the Sunday slate to finalize the matchups in the next round.
While the number of upsets has been a bit underwhelming relative to expectations, the action is not over yet. Most of the top teams remaining should only lead to the highest quality basketball in the biggest games. However, the margin for error is slim in the one-game setting. Here are my top three upset picks on Sunday’s NCAA Tournament slate.
Best Round of 32 upset predictions for Sunday 3/22/26
Miami (+270) over Purdue
The Miami Hurricanes hold a 26-8 record on the season and comfortably crushed past Missouri with an 80-66 win in the opening round of the tournament. They rank 53rd in the country in scoring with 81.9 points per game, while battling a difficult schedule all year. They will be facing off with a Purdue team with the same number of losses and some defensive concerns that will come into play in this matchup. Purdue blew out Queens 104-71 in its opening round matchup, but there is not much to take away from this given the quality of the opponent.
The Boilermakers rank 188th in defensive rating, 211th in opponent field goal percentage, and 214th in opponent three-point percentage. Tre Donaldson and Malik Reneau headline the scoring for the Hurricanes, with both players capable of pouring in 20+ points on any given night. Miami’s offense is the real deal, and Purdue’s defense is not a high enough quality to limit the Hurricanes. Expect a clear effort from Miami to play at a high pace and put a strong scoring total on the board. If the Canes make this a shootout, Purdue will struggle to score at the same pace. Miami is a 7.5-point underdog and holds +270 odds of winning outright. The pace of this game will have a direct role in the result, but Miami is capable of outpacing this Purdue team and will create a pathway to a win if it can play at a quick pace. Look for things to play out this way and for Purdue’s lack of firepower to be its demise.
Kansas (+140) over St. John’s
The Kansas Jayhawks have been a strange team to evaluate all season. There has been plenty of noise surrounding the availability of Darryn Peterson, and they have been forced to play without the top NBA prospect far more than they would probably like. There is also a wide range between when Kansas looks its best and when they struggle. The team went 24-10 in the regular season and defeated California Baptist 68-60 in the first round. Kansas stretched the lead to as large as 26, but allowed Cal Baptist to sneak back into the matchup in the second half.
St. John’s is a solid team that beat Northern Iowa 79-53 in the opening round. But the Red Storm lean on their defense for success and have a tough time scoring at a rate that can put opponents away. Kansas matches up well, and Peterson will be the most talented player on the floor. Both of these coaches have plenty of NCAA Tournament experience, and this is a matchup that should be expected to come right down to the wire. But Kansas possesses an offensive gear that St. John’s cannot quite match, so expect this high-powered matchup to bring out the best in the Jayhawks. Peterson still has plenty to prove and has a team built to run with him. This group can beat any team in the country on any given night, and this is the type of matchup that they will be fired up for. With the best player on the floor on their side, a defensive unit capable of matching St. John’s, and more offensive talent, I am backing the Jayhawks to pull off the upset and advance to the Sweet 16.
UCLA (+164) over UConn
The list of college basketball players playing at a higher level than Donovan Dent right now is slim. However, Dent struggled a bit in the opening round matchup, shooting 4-for-17 from the field and finishing with just 10 total points. The New Mexico transfer still added five assists, five rebounds, and six steals in the 75-71 win over UCF, but expect a bit of a bounce-back offensive performance. Dent was the catalyst, but UCLA has looked impressive across the board as the season has progressed. Mick Cronin’s squad is 24-11 overall and has ranked wins over Purdue, Illinois, Nebraska, and Michigan State since the new year.
While the Connecticut Huskies still belong in the upper echelon of college basketball conversations, this year’s team does not have the same bite as the back-to-back National Championship teams. UConn ranks 133rd in the country in scoring and the roster does not possess the same quality of NBA prospects as in years past. The Huskies defeated Furman 82-71 in the opening round, and UCLA will be a massive leap in competition. UConn will not go down without a fight, but with better guard play and some really impressive flashes this season, I am backing UCLA to send Connecticut home.
