The madness of the NCAA Tournament’s opening round is in the books, and the VCU Rams will look to keep the momentum rolling against the Illinois Fighting Illini on Saturday. VCU advanced after an overtime win over North Carolina, while Illinois rolled to a 35-point rout of Penn to punch its ticket to the Round of 32.
Illinois enters as an 11.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, while VCU sits as a +410 underdog. The game total is set at O/U 151.5 points.
VCU vs. Illinois prediction, preview
VCU holds a 28-7 record and won the Atlantic-10 Tournament to reach the NCAA Tournament. The Rams have won 17 of their last 18 games, including seven straight. Their hot streak continued in an improbable opening round win over North Carolina, as they trailed for 77% of the matchup and as many as 19 points. But VCU staged a spirited comeback to force overtime and secure the victory.
The Rams are 18-17 against the spread this season and have fallen under the game total in 19 of 35 games.
Terrence Hill Jr. leads the team with 14.9 points per game, while Lazar Djokovic pitches in 13.6 points and a team-high 5.4 rebounds. Jadrian Tracey, Brandon Jennings, and Nyk Lewis each add over eight points per contest, and Michael Belle and Ahmad Nowell each play notable roles, as well.
Phil Martelli Jr.’s squad ranks 56th nationally in scoring, 46th in offensive rating, 128th in field-goal percentage, and 31st in three-point percentage. Defensively, the Rams sit 116th in points allowed, 84th in defensive rating, 104th in opponent field-goal percentage, and 137th in opponent three-point accuracy.
Illinois is 25-8 this season, notching ranked wins over Texas Tech, Tennessee, Purdue, and Nebraska. The Fighting Illini cruised to an opening-round blowout of Penn, leading for 90% of the contest and stretching their lead to as much as 40 points.
The program is 18-15 against the spread and has fallen under the game total in 19 of 33 games.
Keaton Wagler leads the team with 17.9 points and 4.5 assists per game, while shooting 40.8% from downtown. David Mirkovic adds 13.8 points and a team-high eight rebounds per game, while Andrej Stojakovic pours in 13.3 points and 4.6 rebounds of his own. Kyland Boswell and Tomislav Ivisic also average in double digits, while Zvonimir Ivisic, Ben Humrichous, and Jake Davis also play key roles in the rotation.
Brad Underwood’s squad leads the country in offensive rating, also ranking 17th nationally in scoring, 102nd in field-goal percentage, and 129th in three-point percentage — attempting the 10th-most triples per contest. On the other end, the Fighting Illini sit 68th in points allowed, 101st in defensive rating, 36th in opponent field-goal percentage, and 45th in opponent three-point percentage.
VCU vs. Illinois pick, best bet
Illinois is the more talented team and has played a tougher schedule. When they play at their peak, the Fighting Illini look like one of the top teams in the country. However, their inconsistent play has been a concern all season, and 11.5 points is a significant spread to cover.
VCU has been red-hot to close the season and has established additional momentum after its stunning comeback against UNC. The Rams have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 matchups, and they’re 12-3 ATS as double-digit underdogs since 2004.
The three-point shot is the great equalizer in college basketball, and VCU is primed to exploit it. The Rams rank 31st in three-point percentage, while also doing a solid job of defending the perimeter. The Rams sit 70th in opponent three-point attempts and 137th in opponent three-point percentage. Illinois, meanwhile, ranks 335th in opponent three-point attempts.
VCU has three Quad 1 wins this season and won’t back down from Illinois. Bolstered by a reliable perimeter presence, the Rams should keep things competitive. They are 5-3 ATS at neutral sites and 8-6 ATS in non-conference matchups. VCU has played its best basketball down the homestretch of the season and should keep the momentum rolling into the Round of 32.
The Fighting Illini have struggled with consistency all season long, a weakness that could catch up to them against VCU.
