The opening round of the NCAA Tournament is in the books with plenty of exciting moments already occurring. Kicking off the second round action, the Saint Louis Billikens will face the Michigan Wolverines.
Both these teams cruised to double-digit victories in their opening round matchup, but likely feel differently about it. Saint Louis dominated Georgia in a 102-77 wire-to-wire win where they stretched the lead to as large as 40. Michigan defeated 16-seeded Howard in a 101-80 win, but led by only four points at halftime.
Looking at the odds for the round of 32 matchup, Michigan enters as a 12.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. Saint Louis holds +600 odds on the Moneyline, with the game total set at O/U 161.5 points.
Saint Louis vs. Michigan prediction, preview
The Saint Louis Billikens hold a 29-5 record this season and put forth as impressive an opening round performance as possible. They dominated Georgia from start to finish, and pulled off the upset with a 25-point win that they led from start to finish. On the season, Saint Louis has gone 17-15 against the spread, and the game total is 16-16 to the over/under in their 32 qualifying games.
Robbie Avila headlines the production with 12.9 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 4.1 assists on the season. Dion Brown adds 11.3 points and 5.5 rebounds, and led this Billikens team with a team-high 18 points against Georgia. Trey Green and Amari McCottry each also average in double figures, while Kellen Thames, Ishan Sharma, and Quentin Jones also play key roles.
Saint Louis ranks eighth in the country by pouring in 87.7 points per game. They also rank 13th in offensive rating, fifth in field goal percentage, and second in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 69.7 points per game against the Billikens, which ranks 66th in the country. Saint Louis also ranks 12th in defensive rating, holds opponents to the worst field goal percentage in the country, and ranks fifth in opponents’ three-point percentage.
The Michigan Wolverines have looked like the best team in the country for a good chunk of the season. The Big Ten regular season champions hold a 32-3 record, with their losses coming against Wisconsin, Duke, and Purdue. The Wolverines went 15-20 against the spread, and the game total remained under in 21 of their 35 games this season.
Big Ten Player of the Year Yaxel Lendeborg headlines the production with 14.4 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per game. Morez Johnson Jr. adds 13.4 points and 7.3 rebounds, while Aday Mara pours in 11.9 points, 6.9 rebounds, and a conference-leading 2.6 blocks per game to set the tone on the interior. Elliot Cadeau is the lone other player to average in double figures with 10.0 points and a team-high 5.7 assists per game, while Trey McKenney, Nimari Burnett, and Will Tschetter also play key roles.
Michigan ranks 10th in the country in scoring by pouring in 87.2 points per game. They also rank 10th in offensive rating, sixth in field goal percentage, and 46th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 69.5 points per game against the Wolverines, which ranks 62nd in the country. Michigan also ranks 14th in defensive rating, second in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 34th in opponents’ field goal percentage.
Saint Louis vs. Michigan pick, best bet
Saint Louis put forth one of the most impressive opening-round efforts in the NCAA Tournament, making a clear statement that they belong. They dominated Georgia on the boards and scored 66 points in the paint in a matchup that they held full control of from start to finish. It will be a more difficult challenge against a team as talented as Michigan, but Saint Louis has a better chance to match up than most. The Wolverines allowed Howard to hang around for far longer than expected in their opening round matchup and failed to cover the massive 30.5-point spread. They did, however, look much more like themselves in the second half and are capable of playing at a much higher level than they showed in the first half.
My lean is toward the Billikens keeping this competitive and covering the 12.5-point spread in this matchup. However, I am backing the game total to remain under the 161.5 game total as my best bet in this game.
Both these teams get the job done on each end of the floor, but each defense is capable of dominating. Michigan ranks 62nd in opponents’ points allowed and 14th in defensive rating, while Saint Louis ranks 66th in opponents’ points allowed and 12th in defensive rating. Michigan has only allowed teams to crack 80 points in three games this season and has held on opponent to as few as 50 points in a game. Saint Louis has not given up more than 86 points in a game all season and has limited an opponent to as few as 33 points in a matchup this year.
From a matchup perspective, both sides are at their best when playing through the post at a high rate and leaning on their interior scoring. Count on each team being content with this matchup being played with more of a slow-paced half-court style, and for points to be difficult to come by. 161.5 points is a high total based on the quality of these defenses. While both sides cracked 100 points in their NCAA Tournament opener, it will not be as easy a task with the improvement in opposing defensive talent. They each also shot 58% or better from the field in the first matchup, which is unsustainable. Count on both sides to have some offensive growing pains with the increase in defensive ability, and for the game total to be too high. Expect 161.5 to be too high of a number based on the content of these teams’ styles and for each defense to have some success in the second round.
