For the second consecutive year, the UFC is back in London, England, at the O2 Arena to host a UFC Fight Night in March. Tonight’s UFC Fight Night features a tremendous Main Event in the Featherweight division between No. 1 Movsar Evloev vs. No. 3 Lerone Murphy.
Check out my best bet and preview for tonight’s Main Event between Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy.
Lerone Murphy Moneyline (+195)
Murphy and Evloev combine for a 36-0-1 record, the best in UFC history between two opponents. Evloev is 19-0 while Murphy has a record of 17-0-1. This is Evloev’s first fight since December 2024, when he beat former champion Aljamain Sterling. Murphy has been the more active fighter, going 2-0 in 2025 with his most recent victory coming by first-round knockout over Aaron Pico.
Murphy will compete in his home country of England, as he is from Manchester. After winning nine consecutive fights, Murphy returns home on the precipice of a UFC title shot. “The Murphy” proved against Pico that he is very dangerous on the feet and excels when being underestimated.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Evloev is a -238 favorite with Murphy being a +195 underdog. The over/under is set at 4.5 rounds with the over being -315.
In this fight, Murphy is taller (5’9″ vs. 5’7″) while having the reach advantage (73″ vs. 72″). Evloev is best on the ground as he averages 4.67 takedowns per 15 minutes, 3.26 more than Murphy. Normally, when Evloev gets his opponents to the ground, they struggle to get back up. But Murphy does have skills on the ground, and with his strength, should be able to not be held down.
Murphy is the better striker in this fight, landing more significant strikes per minute, having better striking accuracy, and absorbing fewer punches. With Evloev coming off a 15-month layoff, he could struggle to find his footing early in this contest. If that comes true, it will give Murphy the advantage. Murphy has slowly risen up the Featherweight division in the UFC, but seems to be entering this bout with more confidence than ever.
