The NBA has 20 teams in action this Saturday, and the Miami Heat visit the Houston Rockets at the Toyota Center in one of the most interesting nonconference games of the night. Both teams are in playoff positions and in close races for better seeds. It’s an important matchup for each team and should be a very entertaining game on both sides. Let’s highlight a few juicy player prop bets to consider adding to your betting card.
In the bigger picture, the Rockets are slight 2.5-point home favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with a game total of 227.5 points.
The Rockets lost two games earlier this week to the Lakers but bounced back and got a good win against the streaking Hawks on Friday night. They are 42-27, sitting fourth in the Western Conference, but the Nuggets and Timberwolves are 43-28 and just percentage points behind them. The Heat are 38-32, in a three-way tie for the No. 7 seed in the East with Atlanta and Philadelphia. The Magic are the No. 6 seed just 1/2 game ahead of them for the last spot in the playoffs without having to go through the Play-In Tournament. The No. 5 and No. 10 spots in the East are separated by less than four games, so it should be a furious finish in the East, and Miami is right in the middle of the mix.
Of note on the injury report, the Heat ruled out Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Andrew Wiggins, while Norman Powell was a late addition as questionable, and Pelle Larsson and Kel’el Ware were upgraded to available. On the Houston side, the Rockets added Alperen Sengun as questionable with a back injury, and Jae’Sean Tate is probable after being sidelined since Feb. 21 due to a sprained right MCL.
Heat at Rockets Best Prop Bets
Amen Thompson o32.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-118)
While Kevin Durant has had a couple of down games this week against the Lakers, Amen Thompson helped pick up the scoring load. With Durant back in form on Friday, Thompson stepped back a little bit, totaling 14 points, seven rebounds and four assists for 25 PRA (points, rebounds and assists) in 34 minutes.
Before that quieter game, though, Thompson had been excellent since battling left quadricep tendonitis and a stretch of lower usage for part of February. He has typically been very efficient and takes on plenty of minutes in close games.
Even with Friday’s under, Thompson has gone over this prop line in nine of his last 11 games. He’s averaging 20.9 points, 8.8 rebounds and 5.2 assists for 34.9 PRA over that stretch.
Since the Heat play at the fastest pace in the NBA, it’s a good pace-up spot to attack Thompson’s PRA total, and you can even be more aggressive and attack it with a higher-risk bet at 35+ or 40+. If Sengun sits, it will only give him more work to do on the boards, where he has already been very good over the last few weeks.
Bam Adebayo o21.5 Points (-115)
Even besides his massive 83-point explosion, Adebayo has been impressive over the last few weeks. He has gone over this prop line in seven of his last 10 games, coming up just one point short against the Magic last Saturday before getting a game off on Tuesday.
Bam was back in action on Thursday and poured in 28 points against the Lakers to go well over this prop line once again. He’s now averaging 20.2 points per game on the season and 29.7 points per game over his last 10.
Especially if Sengun sits, the Rockets will have a hard time matching up against Adebayo, and Miami should look to attack that matchup early and often. In his 18 games without Powell, he has received a bump of over four percentage points in usage rate and averaged 24.7 points per game. In his seven games without Powell and Wiggins, that number goes up even more, as he has averaged 30.3 points in those contests..
Tari Eason u10.5 Points (-108)
Eason was moved to the bench on Friday and replaced by Reed Sheppard in the starting lineup. Eason came off the bench and had 10 points and 10 rebounds in 24 minutes. He made a three-pointer for the first time in a long time, but he still came in under this prop for his 13th straight game.
He has exactly 10 points in each of his last two games but is still just 2-for-31 (6.5%) from long range in his last 10 games, averaging only 7.0 points per game.
He has the firepower to pile up points when he’s right, but his shooting slump and a smaller role make this a good prop to target again on Saturday against the Heat. Even when he has gotten big minutes lately, it hasn’t resulted in big scoring games. Until he gets going, it makes sense to keep hammering his under.
Bonus Parlay Pick: Pelle Larsson o15.5 Points + Assists (-107)
If you’re building an SGP (Same Game Parlay) from this Saturday night showdown, one way to boost the odds even higher is by backing Larsson to go over this combined points and assists prop line. Adding the fourth player prop into the mix boosts the SGP all the way up to +950 for these four Heat-Rockets bets.
Larsson was upgraded from questionable to available and will likely continue to help fill in for Wiggins and possibly Powell. He posted at least 16 points and assists in three of his last four games and has been within a basket of going over in eight of his last 10. Since he was already getting so much work, Powell’s absence would make this an even stronger play on Saturday.
