Hoops fans are thriving right now with plentiful options across the sport’s landscape to tune into across the day. An inter-conference clash between the Miami Heat and Houston Rockets creates some intrigue for sure, especially with both sides looking to shake off some recent setbacks. Miami has dropped three straight games, while Houston dropped back-to-back outings prior to a win last night.
Here’s a Heat vs. Rockets prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Saturday’s contest.
Heat vs. Rockets prediction, preview
Miami Heat
The Heat are 38-32 overall and 7-3 across their last 10 games. Sounds great, right? Those three losses have come in consecutive outings at the hands of the Magic, Hornet and Lakers… two of which had extra impact in dropping Miami to eighth in the Eastern Conference standings.
The Heat have a +3.0 NETRTG that’s good for 11th in the NBA, also operating at first in pace. This offense is one of the league’s best with 120.3 PPG, second most of any team, though they fall 13th in OFFRTG. They’re third in fastbreak points as well as points in the paint, also sitting sixth in assists with the fourth-best AST/TO ratio at 2.065. The Heat aren’t as efficient as one may think though, shooting 46.4% overall and 35.7% from deep, excelling on volume rather than making the most of their attempts. Miami does rank second in rebounding with 46.9 boards a night, and while the group allows 117.1 PPG, it comes in at sixth in DEFRTG with the seventh-lowest eFG% allowed to opponents.
Leading scorer Norman Powell is questionable to play with a calf injury, potentially leaving 22.3 PPG sidelined (though he’s slid into a bench role with heavy minutes lately). Tyler Herro brings 21.4 points and 3.9 assists per game and can step up if needed in Powell’s absence. Bam Adebayo also averages 20.2 points with 9.7 rebounds as the anchor of the frontcourt, joined by Kel’el Ware’s 11.3 points and 9.4 rebounds. Andrew Wiggins and Jaime Jaquez Jr. are both out today though, leaving Miami without another pair of double-digit scorers.
Houston Rockets
The Rockets are perhaps one of the most confusing teams in the NBA. They’re 42-27 and have stars like Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun, but the franchise can’t seem to find any sort of consistency with some losses to bad teams just a 5-5 record across the last 10 games. They did down a surging Atlanta Hawks group last night, but there may be some tired legs here on Saturday.
With a +4.3 NETRTG, Houston sits seventh leaguewide in the stat and ranks second-to-last in pace. The defense is the crux of its success with 109.8 PPG allowed, fourth fewest, plus the eighth-best DEFRTG in the NBA. The Rockets still dominate the glass and remain first in rebounding with 48.1 a game, and they’re No. 1 in offensive rebounding in particular as well. The scoring production lags behind with 113.9 PPG (22nd) despite the 11th-ranked OFFRTG, and the unit struggles with playmaking in the halfcourt with the third-worst AST/TO ratio at 1.586. The scoring efficiency isn’t bad by any means though, sitting seventh in 3P% at 36.3% and 10th in FG% at 47.5%.
Sengun, averaging 20.2 points, 8.9 rebounds and 6.2 assists per game, is questionable tonight with a back issue. That could mean even more responsibility for leading scorer Kevin Durant with 25.7 PPG, and Amen Thompson could take on a larger role after posting 17.9 points with 7.8 boards and 5.3 assists a game as well. Jabari Smith Jr. brings 15.6 points and 6.8 rebounds, and Reed Sheppard averages 13.4 points with 3.2 dimes. Tari Eason — who was in the midst of a brutal cold streak from deep but finally connected on a three after missing 21 straight — averages 10.5 points with 6.4 boards.
Heat vs. Rockets pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Rockets as -2.5 favorites tonight with -125 odds on the Moneyline. The Heat are listed at +105 odds on the ML with the game total set at 227.5 combined points.
These teams faced off back on February 28 in their lone meeting of this season thus far. The Heat took that one 115-105 in South Beach, and while Smith Jr. missed it for Houston, Powell was also sidelined for Miami as well. The teams tied on the glass with 47 boards each, though the Rockets shot just 25% from beyond the arc which ultimately did them in.
That last game felt a little bit uncharacteristic with just 220 points between the two sides, especially since the Heat are first in pace with the league lead in FGA per game. I’m targeting over 112.5 points for the Heat here, even against a strong defense. They went over this line in the last matchup and have done so in seven of their nine games this month, plus 14 of their 16 since the All-Star break. Even in a tough contest against a Rockets group that tries to slow things down and make life difficult for opposing shooters, the Heat have productive scorers. With the tired legs for Houston, I fully expect Miami to get out in transition and use its ability to run the floor to its advantage, going over 112.5 points in this spot.
Top pick: MIA Heat over 112.5 (-105)
