The No. 6 seed Louisville Cardinals face No. 3 Michigan State in the Round of 32 with a spot in the Sweet Sixteen on the line. Louisville beat No. 11 South Florida 83-79 while Michigan State defeated No. 14 North Dakota State 92-67 in the first round. The Spartans are 4-2 against the Cardinals and won their last meeting in December 2021. This is the fourth Louisville vs. Michigan State matchup in March Madness. Michigan State is 2-1 over Louisville in the tournament.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Michigan State is -4.5 while the Cardinals are +160 to pull off the upset. Check out my best bet for today’s No. 1 vs. No. 16 matchup between Louisville and Michigan State.
Louisville vs. Michigan State (2:45 p.m. ET)
As the betting line suggests, this game is extremely close. But Louisville will still be without star freshman Mikel Brown Jr., who has averaged 18.2 points per contest this season. Senior guard Ryan Conwell averages 18.7 points and must take it up a level to have a chance against Michigan State. The Cardinals are 5-5 in their previous 10 games. They average 84.7 points per contest, which is 5.4 more than Michigan State scores. But the Spartans have the better defense, only allowing 68.4 points per game to opponents.
After losing two straight games for the first time in over a month, Michigan got back on track against North Dakota State. Jeremy Fears is leading the country in assists per game with 9.2 and recorded double-digit assists on Thursday for the 14th time this season. Four Spartans scored at least 10 points in their last game, with Carson Cooper delivering a double-double of 20 points and 10 rebounds, while Coen Carr added 17 of his own. Michigan State’s 92 points against North Dakota State were their most since December 29.
Michigan State is No. 9 overall on KenPom, while Louisville is No. 20. The Spartans’ defensive rating is 20th, while Louisville’s is 25th. The Cardinals’ offensive rating is ranked three points ahead of Michigan State’s. Five of Michigan State’s previous six wins have come by at least four points. Issac McKneely hit seven three-pointers for Louisville in their first game of the tournament. If Michigan State can display its elite defense while Fears gets everyone involved, it should win this game. Besides McKneely and Conwell, the Cardinals don’t have enough depth offensively.
