The PGA TOUR is in Tampa this weekend for the fourth and final event in the Florida Swing. The Valspar Championship at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is an exciting venue that typically plays very difficult, especially if the wind kicks up. The third round is already underway this Saturday, so let’s take a look at some best bets for the afternoon groups of Round 3 of the Valspar Championship.
The weather forecast for Saturday is sunny and warm with gentle winds picking up later in the day. Florida weather can still be unpredictable, though, so be sure to keep close tabs on the weather as you plan your Round 3 strategy.
In this post, we’ll focus on my three best bets for Round 3 of the Valspar on Saturday, March 21. Let’s tee it up!
Matchup (3 Way) – Round 3 – Jordan Smith (+102) over Marco Penge
Yesterday, I picked Billy Horschel over Andrew Putnam in what turned out to be a wild ride over the last few holes before Horschel pulled out the one-stroke win. I’m going with another 3-way matchup to start my Round 3 best bets, taking Jordan Smith over Marco Penge in Round 3.
Smith starts one group ahead of Penge, teeing off at 1:25 p.m. ET alongside Alex Smalley, while Penge will play with Matt Fitzpatrick at 1:35. Both Smith and Penge start the day at -5 after posting identical 69-68 starts to the tournament.
A deeper look at the numbers, though, shows the two players have the same score, but that they got there very different ways. Smith leads the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Greens in Regulation and ranks third in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. Penge has done most of his work with his putter, ranking in the top 10 in Strokes Gained: Putting but only 34th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. Typically, I rely on shotmaking and Tee-to-Green metrics as better indicators of success than a hot putter since flat sticks can be so streaky.
Smith had a little better form coming into this tournament as well, posting top-25 finishes at the WM Phoenix Open and the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches on a similar Florida course to what he’s facing this week. Penge had a T-16 at The Genesis Invitational but has missed the cut and finished T-64 in his four other events on the PGA TOUR this season.
Both players are making their debut at the tournament this week and looking to post their best finish on the PGA TOUR this season, but based on how they got to this point and their recent form, Smith is the stronger play to have a better day on Saturday.
Brooks Koepka u70.5 Round Score – Round 3 (-132)
Koepka hasn’t been in contention on Sunday yet, but he has been solid in his return to the PGA TOUR this year. He has made the cut in three of his four events with a pair of top-25 finishes. The Florida native and resident posted a T-9 at PGA National to start the Florida Swing and added an impressive T-13 at THE PLAYERS Championship last week.
Koepka leads the field this week in Strokes Gained: Approach, and even though his short game hasn’t been great, he starts the day in the top 10 with a -4 score through two rounds. He started with an even-par 71 on Thursday, but then he got hot with a four-under 67 on Friday. He made seven birdies in that round, so even his three bogeys couldn’t hold him back.
In his last appearance at Innisbrook’s Copperhead Course in 2022, Koepka finished T-12, going under this prop in three of his four rounds. He’s also been under par in four of his last five rounds and seven of his last nine. All he has to do is break par to deliver on this prop, and his irons have looked strong enough to give him plenty of birdie chances in Round 3. Koepka is in the 12:50 p.m. ET pairing and will play alongside Danny Walker.
Round 3 – David Lipsky o3.5 Birdies or Better (+106)
Let’s finish out my Round 3 best bets with a player from the final pairing. While Sungjae Im is -180 to go over 3.5 Birdies or Better, the odds are much more favorable to back David Lipsky at the same prop line.
Lipsky has played four events this season, making the cut three times, highlighted by a T-18 at the Farmers Insurance Open. Lipsky started this week with a -2 in Round 1, but in that round, he had three birdies on his first nine and added another one before two late bogeys dropped him to -2.
In Round 2, Lipsky dropped three birdies in his first four holes and went over this prop on his sixth hole before adding two more birdies in his bogey-free round. He finished with a -6 round that pushed him to -8 in solo second for the start of Round 3.
He’ll be playing with Im in the final group, and even if he can’t match yesterday’s big round, he has a great chance to drop at least four par-breakers to deliver on this plus-money prop.
