Down at the business end of the English Premier League season, there are a variety of objectives at work here. Fulham have an outside chance at qualifying for one of the European leagues next season, while Burnley are desperately trying to avoid relegation. Can the Clarets pull the upset? Or will Fulham deal them a crushing blow?
Fulham is a -170 ML favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. A Burnley upset is priced at +500 odds, with the draw at +310. The over/under for this game is set at 2.5 goals. Let’s get into a prediction and a pick for this matchup.
Fulham vs. Burnley prediction, pick
At the start of March, Fulham had to feel great about their season. They were in the top half of the table and within striking distance of a Europa League spot. They were also advancing in the FA Cup, moving closer to an upset trophy win. They had five straight matches against teams in the relegation fight on the docket, including an FA Cup tie with Championship side Southampton. But things are not going well.
After taking down a limp Tottenham side 2-1 on March 1, Fulham have hit a wall. First, they suffered a 1-0 loss to West Ham, one of the teams currently slated for relegation. Then they dropped out of the FA Cup against Southampton, also via a 1-0 defeat. Fulham did get a point against Nottingham Forest in a nil-nil draw, but they’d like to get all three points against a team far below them in the table. Four points from three matches against teams in the bottom five of the table is not good enough. But they get a chance for some redemption against Burnley.
The Clarets are having a nightmare season. They’ve won only one of their last 21 Premier League games, all but solidifying their relegation. The OPTA supercomputer, the preeminent authority on Premier League statistics, gives Burnley only a 0.4% chance of staying up. They need to close a nine-point gap with eight games remaining. It’s not impossible, but they need to shape up now or prepare for a demotion.
This is one of those “stoppable force meets a movable object” games. Fulham’s offense has gone dead quiet, failing to score in their last three games. Will they fix that up facing the worst defense in the league?
My gut says yes. Fulham’s defense has remained strong, conceding only five goals in their last six games. If Raul Jimenez and the Cottagers’ attack can convert on their chances, I believe they are a value, even at a steep Moneyline price.
