The top-seeded Duke Blue Devils take on the 9-seeded TCU Horned Frogs in the Second Round of March Madness on Saturday. The game tips off at 5:15 p.m. ET in Greenville, South Carolina.
The Blue Devils are listed as 11.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook with the total set at O/U 139.5 points. Let’s dive into my preview, prediction and pick for this NCAA Tournament college basketball matchup.
Duke vs. TCU prediction, preview
The Duke Blue Devils avoided an absolutely disastrous loss in the First Round. Only two 16-seeds in NCAA Tournament history have upset 1-seeds. However, Duke trailed at halftime against the bottom-seeded Siena Saints and went down to the wire to avoid joining that infamous group. The Blue Devils’ injury issues, a concern heading into the tournament, reared their ugly head sooner than anyone expected. Starting guard Caleb Foster is likely out for the entire NCAA Tournament, even if Duke makes the Final Four. Meanwhile, the squad’s third-leading scorer and second-leading rebounder, Patrick Ngongba II, missed Thursday’s game and will likely miss Saturday, as well.
TCU got a great Round of 64 win over Ohio State. The Horned Frogs jumped out to a fantastic start, leading by 15 points at halftime. Ohio State nearly staged an epic comeback, but TCU managed to hang on for the win. The program has three stellar forwards — Micah Robinson, Xavier Edmonds, and David Punch — all with good size and length, causing problems for opposing defenses. Against Ohio State, the trio combined for 50 of TCU’s 66 points. They should pose challenges for Duke, especially without its defensive stalwart in Ngongba. While not as talented as Duke, TCU’s “big three” has the size and skills to compete with the nation’s best.
Duke vs. TCU pick, best bet
My best bet for this game is for TCU to cover as 11.5-point underdogs. Duke was one of the top defensive teams in the country during the regular season, ranking second in defensive rating. However, the Blue Devils are increasingly vulnerable without defensive anchor Patrick Ngongba II down low and Caleb Foster patrolling the perimeter. Duke even resorted to zone defense against Siena because it struggled to get consistent stops.
The Blue Devils had a massive athletic and size advantage over Siena. If they struggled to get stops against the Saints, they should have an even tougher time containing a formidable TCU squad. The Horned Frogs also have the length to slow down Duke’s offensive engine, Cameron Boozer. Until Duke can get some reinforcements back, this tournament could be tough for the program. TCU should keep things within single digits, with a legitimate chance to pull off an upset.
