The California Baptist Lancers (23-10, 15-3 WAC) and UCLA Bruins (31-1, 18-0 Big Ten) will face off in the opening round of the NCAA women’s basketball tournament on Saturday, going head-to-head at Pauley Pavilion. The No. 1 seed vs. No. 16 seed showdown will tip off at 10 p.m. ET/7 p.m. PT on ESPN.
The Bruins are 51.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at 146.5 points.
California Baptist vs. UCLA Preview, Prediction
California Baptist Preview
In their eighth season of Division I action, the Lancers earned their second NCAA tournament bid. They also went dancing as a No. 15 seed in 2024, when they lost 84-55 to UCLA, naturally. This year, Jarrod Olson’s squad notched six fewer wins than he did in 2023-24, although it was a step up from the squad’s losing record last season. Cal Baptist finished the season on a 17-3 hot streak, beating Tarleton State and Abilene Christian by 17 and 16 points, respectively, in the WAC tournament.
Lauren Olsen, the Lancers’ leading scorer at 15.1 points per game, is a freshman, so she wasn’t around the last time her team visited Westwood. Junior guard Khloe Lemon is averaging 10.0 points per game of her own, despite losing her spot in the starting lineup to Shawnee Nordstrom. Senior forward Grace Schmidt, Portuguese guard Filipa Barros and post Emma Johansson are all averaging double figures as well. Barros led the WAC with 10.0 rebounds per game at just 6 feet tall, while the 6-foot-3 Johansson paced the conference with 2.8 blocks a night.
Cal Baptist jacks up the eighth-most threes per game in the country, on top of boasting a top-20 two-point defense and running at a top-40 tempo. They struggle to get to the line, though, and own the 12th-worst turnover rate differential in the field.
The Lancers rank No. 113 in the updated Bart Torvik ratings, owning the No. 98 offense and No. 155 defense. As for the NET rankings, Cal Baptist comes in at No. 118. The program is 0-1 against Quad 1, 0-1 against Quad 2, 2-2 against Quad 3 and 21-6 against Quad 4. Saturday’s game against UCLA constitutes a Quad 1 matchup.
UCLA Preview
The Bruins made their first-ever Final Four last season, and their senior-led team hardly missed a beat this year. They dropped their showdown with Texas in November, though, slashing their hopes of going undefeated. But from that point on, UCLA didn’t lose again. They went undefeated in Big Ten play and doubled up a top-10 Iowa team in the conference title game, making a serious push for the No. 1 overall seed. The committee still picked UConn over UCLA, but that hardly diminishes how impressive the Bruins’ resume was.
Lauren Betts won Big Ten Player of the Year and earned All-American honors thanks to her 16.4 points, 8.6 rebounds and 1.9 rebounds per game. Point guard Kiki Rice was just as integral to UCLA’s success with her 15.3 points, 6.0 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game on .504/.381/.891 shooting splits. Charlisse Leger-Walker, coming back from a torn ACL, actually led the team with 5.6 assists a night. Bench spark plug Angela Dugalic, Utah transfer Gianna Kneepkens and UCLA royalty Gabriela Jaquez round out the rest of the key contributors, plus Betts’ younger sister Sienna.
The Bruins boast the No. 6 scoring offense in the country, which can be attributed to their efficiency from everywhere on the floor. They rank No. 2 in two-point percentage, No. 6 in three-point percentage and No. 17 in free throw percentage, plus No. 2 in assists per game and No. 11 in total rebounds per game.
Per the latest Bart Torvik ratings, the Bruins rank No. 1 on offense, No. 4 on defense, and No. 2 overall. They come in at No. 2 in the NET, going 19-1 against Quad 1, 1-0 against Quad 2, 5-0 against Quad 3 and 6-0 against Quad 4. Saturday’s game versus Cal Baptist constitutes a Quad 3 matchup.
California Baptist vs. UCLA Pick, Best Bet
For starters, only one No. 16 seed has ever knocked off a No. 1 seed in the NCAA women’s basketball tournament – Harvard over Stanford in 1998. Considering how infallible the Bruins have been this season, don’t expect a historic result Saturday night in Westwood. Under Cori Close, UCLA has never lost in the first round or to a double-digit seed.
At the same time, UCLA has only won by 52 or more points twice all year. Those results came against the No. 139 and No. 320 teams in the Bart Torvik rankings, both behind California Baptist. The Bruins are fresh off a 51-point beatdown of Iowa in the Big Ten tournament, but that was when Cori Close and company were fighting for the top overall seed. A win is a win now, and you don’t get any credit for blowouts in a single-elimination bracket. Plus, the Bart Torvik model only has the Bruins projected to win by 44.7 points.
This UCLA team has its eyes on the prize, trying to win a title rather than rack up style points. Look for Close to use a bit of her depth and not show her cards too much.
