Let the madness continue! The 64-team bracket is officially set, and we’ve got plenty of talented players, rosters, and Cinderellas ready to dance. #13 Western Illinois and #4 North Carolina face off today in the Women’s First Round, with the Tar Heels entering as 25.5-point favorites and a total set at 132.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Let’s dive into my prediction and pick for Friday’s First Round matchup, tipping off at 5:30 p.m. ET.
Western Illinois Leathernecks vs. North Carolina prediction
The Leathernecks come into tonight’s matchup riding high after winning the OVC Tournament, finishing 26-5 overall and 16-4 in conference play. It starts with Mia Nicastro, who’s been dominant all season: 24.2 points and 9.9 rebounds per game, ranking fourth in the NCAA in scoring. Right behind her is 5’11” junior Raegan McCowan, adding 17.0 PPG and 6.4 RPG. Bottom line: Western Illinois can score. With four players averaging double digits, and two over 15, they powered their way to a title, putting up 73.3 PPG and shooting 48.9% from the field over their last 10.
North Carolina brings a different résumé. The Tar Heels went 4-6 in Quad 1 games and a perfect 10-0 in Quad 4, while Western Illinois won 20 of 24 Quad 4 matchups but played just one Quad 1 game (a loss) and zero Quad 2. So while the Leathernecks are rolling, UNC has been tested at a much higher level.
Depth shows up on both sides. Western Illinois has four players averaging 10+, and UNC matches it. Nyla Harris leads the way with 11.2 PPG and 6.7 RPG, with Lanie Grant, Indya Nivar, and Elina Aarnisalo all in double figures. The edge, though, is shooting. UNC leads the ACC at 36.1% from three, with Grant and Aarnisalo both over 41%, while Western Illinois sits closer to 35% as a team with just one starter above 40%.
The key for UNC? The three-point line. Nicastro and McCowan can create, but WIU isn’t consistently a three-level scoring team. If UNC is hitting from deep, they can control the game. For the Leathernecks, it’s all about Nicastro. She’s posted three straight double-doubles, including 21 points and 12 boards in the OVC title game. If that carries over, UNC could be on upset watch.
Western Illinois Leathernecks vs. North Carolina pick
As of Friday afternoon, 90% of the bets are on North Carolina to win, while just 10% are on Western Illinois. This game could get messy, but the experience of the Tar Heels pulls me in their direction.
Lean: North Carolina ML
