Big East battles the Mountain West as part of Friday’s March Madness action. #9 Utah State (28-6, 15-5) has been a force all season, culminating in a MWC championship. Now, the Aggies will attempt to keep it rolling against #8 Villanova (24-8, 15-5). The Wildcats are enjoying their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2022.
Utah State enters as 1.5-point favorites (-115) over Villanova. The total is set at 146.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Tip-off is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Friday’s game between the Aggies and Wildcats.
Utah State vs. Villanova prediction, preview
The Aggies have been a model program for years in the MWC. That’s despite losing head coach Ryan Odom to Virginia over the offseason. New head coach Jerrod Calhoun has emphasized two-way play, leading to some impressive results. In just one season, Utah State has gone from 150th to 44th-best in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom. That includes a turnover rate of 20.6%, 16th-best in college basketball.
For all their defensive improvement, the Aggies make their biggest impact on the other end of the floor. This is a true two-headed attack, headlined by leading scorer MJ Collins. The senior is averaging 17.6 points per game on quality 49/37/82 splits. He’s joined by co-star Mason Falslev; the do-it-all guard has recorded 16.1 points, 5.8 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game this season. USU loves taking it to the rack, ranking 11th in college basketball with a 59.3% two-point shooting percentage. If there’s a weakness for this crew, it’s on the glass. Utah State’s 50.9% total rebounding percentage is tied for 128th in the nation.
These two teams have been built in a similar fashion. Much like their opponents, the Wildcats depend heavily on their back court. Tyler Perkins (13.7 PPG), Acaden Lewis (12.3 PPG) and Bryce Lindsay (11.9 PPG) can wreak havoc on defenses. Don’t forget about sixth man Devin Askew, one of the Big East’s premier shooters (40.8% 3PT). One area where Villanova might possess a significant advantage is at the five. Grand Canyon transfer Duke Brennan has been effective down low, averaging 12.4 points and 10.3 rebounds. The double-double machine will face an Aggies team that has just three defenders taller than 6’7″.
The rub on Nova is a lack of success against big-time teams. As is common knowledge to Big East fans, the Wildcats have gone 2-6 against Quad 1 opponents this season. In comparison, Utah State has four such wins. Granted, none of those victories are quite as impressive as the Wildcats’ triumph over Wisconsin. Villanova, in spite of Brennan, doesn’t offer much resistance at the rim. The team’s 6.0% block percentage is the 14th-lowest mark in college basketball. That could be an issue tonight against a drive-heavy offense.
Utah State vs. Villanova pick, best bet
The Aggies have the premier scorers and slightly more depth, but a dependence on two players is somewhat troubling. Not to mention, the Mountain West gauntlet isn’t quite as intimidating compared to the Big East. When we last saw the Wildcats, they got dominated by a mediocre Georgetown squad. Still, I’d expect more effort and intensity under the leadership of head coach Kevin Willard. Utah State’s defensive improvement, combined with a slow-paced Villanova offense, could turn this into your classic #8 vs. #9 nail-biter.
Best Bet: Utah State vs. Villanova under 146.5 total points (-105)
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