The dust has settled for the opening round of NCAA Tournament action, and the round of 32 is now underway. Facing off in the South Region of the bracket, the 2-seeded Houston Cougars will face off with the 10-seeded Texas A&M Aggies.
Houston defeated Troy 76-47 in their opening round matchup, in which they held complete control throughout. Texas A&M earned its way into the second round by defeating Saint Mary’s 63-50. Both teams led for over 91% of the game and stretched the lead to 20+ points in their opening round victory.
Looking at the odds for the second-round matchup on DraftKings Sportsbook, Houston enters as a 10.5-point favorite, while Texas A&M holds +380 odds of pulling off the outright upset with the game total set at 142.5.
Texas A&M vs. Houston prediction, preview
The Texas A&M Aggies are 22-11 on the season, with their victory over Saint Mary’s being one of their most impressive performances all year. They led from wire-to-wire and held complete control in the matchup and comfortably covered the 2.5-point spread. On the season, Texas A&M has gone 19-14 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 19 of their 33 games played.
Rashaun Agee headlines the scoring for Texas A&M, posting averages of 14.9 points and 8.9 rebounds per game. Rylan Griffen adds 11.4 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 2.5 assists, while shooting 40.9% on three-point attempts. Ruben Dominguez adds 10.3 points and shoots 40.5% on three-point attempts, while Pop Isaacs, Ali Dibba, and Marcus Hill also play notable roles.
Bucky McMillan’s squad is averaging 87.0 points per game, which ranks 11th in the country. Texas A&M also ranks 42nd in offensive rating, 146th in field goal percentage, 55th in three-point percentage, and launches the 17th-most three-pointers in the country. Defensively, opponents are scoring 78.7 points per game against the Aggies, which ranks 310th out of the 365 qualifying teams. Texas A&M also ranks 172nd in defensive rating, 163rd in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 76th in opponents’ three-point percentage.
The Houston Cougars have posted a 29-6 record this season, and lived up to their hard-nosed defensive identity in the opening round victory. After Idaho jumped out to a 10-7 lead, Houston limited them to just 37 points over the next 35 minutes of play and comfortably covered the 23.5-point spread. On the season, Houston has gone 17-18 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 21 of their 35 games played.
Freshman guard Kingston Flemings has emerged as Houston’s offensive engine, leading the team with 16.4 points and 5.3 assists per game. Emanuel Sharp provides more experience in the backcourt, adding 15.3 points while leading the Big 12 with an 89.3% free-throw percentage. Milos Uzan is the lone other player to average in double figures with 11.1 points and 4.0 assists per game. Chris Cenac Jr. and Joseph Tugler round out the starting lineup and play a major role in attacking the glass. Houston keeps a narrow rotation with no player outside the starting lineup playing more than 15 minutes per game.
Kelvin Sampson’s squad ranks 147th in the nation in scoring with 77.2 points per game. Houston also ranks 33rd in offensive rating, 187th in field goal percentage, and 108th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 62.4 points per game against the Cougars, which is the second-best rate in the country. They also rank eighth in defensive rating, 15th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 61st in opponent three-point percentage.
Texas A&M vs. Houston pick, best bet
This is an interesting clash of styles as Texas A&M leans on a high-powered offensive attack for success, while Houston is dependent on their toughness and high level defense. Ultimately, I am backing the defense to travel and for Houston to win the total by more than the 10.5-point spread.
Houston ranks second in the country in opponents’ points allowed and has held opponents to 60 points or fewer in 16 games this year. Expect their swarming defense to make its impact felt, especially when facing a Texas A&M squad that can be too casual with the ball. The Aggies rank 115th in turnovers per game and coughed it up 10 times in the victory over Saint Mary’s.
In contrast, Houston limits turnovers offensively at the best rate in the country. They are battle-tested, ranking 22nd in the country in strength of schedule, with ranked wins over teams like Kansas, BYU, Texas Tech, Arkansas, and Auburn this year. The iteration of the Houston roster has completely personified the toughness and personality of Kelvin Sampson, and the Cougars are a good bet to come away with just about every loose ball. Houston looks like a team that has a chance to make a deep NCAA Tournament run, and Texas A&M is not the caliber of team that can cause a true threat.
While the Aggies’ opening round win was impressive, they have been inconsistent this season. Their dependency on production from beyond the three-point arc inherently leads to some higher variance, and this will be the most difficult defense they have faced all season. Expect Houston’s defense to be the story in this one, and for their ability to generate turnovers and turn this into immediate offense to pave the way to covering the 10.5-point spread. It will take a strong shooting effort from Texas A&M to get a positive result, and don’t bank on this happening against a defense of this quality.
