Let the madness begin! The 64-team bracket is officially set, and we’ve got plenty of talented players, rosters, and Cinderellas ready to dance. #11 South Dakota State and #6 Washington face off tonight in the Women’s First Round, with the Huskies entering as 5.5-point favorites and a total set at 131.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Let’s dive into my prediction and pick for Friday’s First Round matchup, tipping off at 2:30 p.m. ET.
South Dakota State vs. Washington prediction
With a 5.5-point spread, this game is bound to get interesting. South Dakota State enters the first round after finishing eighth in the Big Ten with a 21–10 record, falling in the conference tournament quarterfinals to top-seeded UCLA. Brooklyn Meyer headlines the Jackrabbits in nearly every statistical category. The 6’2″ senior averaged 22.4 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 2.7 SPG, and 1.9 BPG to lead her team.
Interestingly enough, Meyer has put up those numbers while shooting 0% from three — yes, you read that right. She attempted just four three-pointers all season and missed them all, proving her game lives in the paint, where she does the dirty work and creates her own looks. The only other double-digit scorer on the roster is Madison Mathiowetz, who posted 13.6 PPG and led the team with 1.3 SPG. While Meyer isn’t a threat from beyond the arc, both Mathiowetz and Emilee Fox shoot above 40% from three, with Fox knocking down an efficient 47.7% from deep.
Through games on March 15, Washington held a NET ranking of 25 and rightfully earned a No. 6 seed. This marks the Huskies’ second straight tournament appearance after not dancing since 2017, and they come in looking to make a run. As a team, Washington ranked among the top five in rebounding in the Big Ten and excelled defensively, holding opponents to just 62.2 PPG — the third-lowest mark in the conference. Sayvia Sellers led the way with 18.5 PPG while also serving as the team’s primary playmaker and disruptor, adding 3.7 APG and 1.5 SPG. Avery Howell anchored the glass with 8.3 RPG, and three Huskies averaged double figures, with Brynn McGaughy just below at 9.0 PPG, highlighting the team’s depth and versatility.
South Dakota State didn’t face the toughest path to the tournament, playing just one Quad 1 game and losing it, while 18 of its wins came against Quad 4 opponents. Washington, on the other hand, went 6–7 in Quad 1 games and took care of business against lower-tier competition, winning all of its Quad 3 and Quad 4 matchups.
South Dakota State vs. Washington pick
This should be a fun one… South Dakota State’s Brooklyn Meyer is an intimidating force on both ends of the court, but Washington’s depth and experience against tougher opponents gives them the edge.
Lean: Washington ML
