The Big East champions will attempt to make another statement in primetime. #5 St. John’s (28-6, 18-2) begins its NCAA Tournament journey as one of the more disrespected squads from Selection Sunday. The Red Storm will now take on physical, hard-nosed 12-seed Northern Iowa (23-12, 11-9). It’s been a terrific campaign for the Panthers, winners of the Missouri Valley Conference.
St. John’s enters as 9.5-point favorites (-112) over Northern Iowa. The total is set at 131.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Friday’s game between the Panthers and Red Storm.
Northern Iowa vs. St. John’s prediction, preview
Don’t be fooled by a mediocre record; Northern Iowa has what it takes to pull off an upset. Nothing comes easy against these guys; UNI is holding opponents to a meager 61.3 points per game. That’s the lowest mark among all Division I programs. Per KenPom, the Panthers wield the nation’s 24th-best adjusted defensive efficiency (98.3). That’s dangerous in any setting, let alone on Friday. After a week off, shooting tends to suffer during the opening weekend of March Madness.
On the flip side, you’ve gotta get buckets yourself to win games. That’s proven to be a major issue for the Panthers. It’s partially a problem of their own creation, posting college basketball’s third-slowest adjusted tempo (62.3). When every possession becomes a struggle, it can wear you out on the other end of the floor. Still, the trio of Trey Campbell (13.7 PPG), Leon Bond III (11.9 PPG) and Will Hornseth (11.2 PPG) can generate their own offense. Still, scoring options outside of the starting five are few and far between for head coach Ben Jacobson.
Few teams in college basketball are hotter than St. John’s. Despite a mediocre non-conference record, the Red Storm have reeled off 19 wins over their last 20 Big East games. If not for a surprisingly bad loss to UConn in February, their seeding would likely be on the 3-line. BE Player and Defensive Player of the Year Zuby Ejiofor is the catalyst. It’s been a spectacular all-around season for the center. Through 34 games, he’s accounted for 16.3 points, 7.1 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.2 steals and 2.1 blocks. Northern Iowa, for all its defensive prowess, isn’t the biggest down low. An experienced big man such as Ejiofor will look to take advantage.
Make no mistake: this isn’t a one-man show. Hall of Fame head coach Rick Pitino has plenty of weapons at his disposal. In the front court, Bryce Hopkins (13.5 PPG, 6.2 REB) is the perfect Robin to Zuby’s Batman. At guard, the Johnnies possess several difference-makers, such as Ian Jackson and Oziyah Sellers. With that being said, St. John’s does have a propensity for scoring droughts. The team is shooting 33.2% from three-point range, only good enough for 216th in the nation. However, it’s not as if the Red Storm take many shots from beyond the arc. This inside-out offense will look to drive and dominate on the glass.
Northern Iowa vs. St. John’s pick, best bet
UNI has the horses to make St. John’s sweat. Still, this squad is a combined 4-7 against Quad 1 and 2 opponents combined. The Johnnies seem to have solved their consistency issues from earlier in the season. With respect to this tenacious Panthers defense, the Red Storm should secure a double-digit victory on Friday night.
Best Bet: St. John’s -9.5 (-112)
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