For all of their success in the men’s NCAA Tournament — they’ve made the Final Four eight times and cut the nets down once — it’s fairly surprising that the Michigan Wolverines’ women’s team has never made a Final Four and has a losing record in March Madness.
This arguably could be Michigan’s best opportunity. For the first time in school history, the Wolverines are a No. 2 seed, and they’ll open their run with a 5:30 p.m. ET matchup against Holy Cross in Ann Arbor.
Michigan is a 45.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 130.5. Below, I’ll break down this first-round matchup and offer a prediction.
Holy Cross Crusaders at Michigan Wolverines (5:30 p.m. ET)
At the start of conference play, a Crusaders run to the NCAA Tournament seemed improbable, given that they went just 6-5 in non-conference competition. But Holy Cross turned it on late, winning 13 of its final 14 games and capping its season by exacting revenge on the one team that beat it in that stretch (Lehigh) in the Patriot League Tournament final. The 77 points that the Crusaders scored in their season finale was their highest total of the campaign. They also held opponents below 60 points 19 times. Throughout the season, they recorded two Quad 3 wins.
Holy Cross is led by Meg Cahalan, a senior guard and the only player on the team averaging double-digit points (15.3). But the Crusaders offer a pretty well-balanced offense; though Cahalan leads the team in scoring, Simone Foreman paces it in rebounds (7.3), Kaitlyn Flanagan in assists (4.2), Kendall Eddy in steals (2.2), and Mary-Elizabeth Donnelly (0.8) in blocks. Holy Cross doesn’t shoot very well — only two players have made more than 30% of their triples this season — but it did have a positive rebound margin and ranked a solid 82nd in three-point percentage defense.
The Wolverines are a tough team; they were competitive even in their losses. Michigan only lost two games by double-digit points, both of which came to Iowa, which ultimately ended up finishing the season 10th in NET rating, and it picked up nine Quad 1 wins, more than all but four teams. The Wolverines ended their regular season on a gauntlet, facing ranked teams in each of their final four games, and came out with three wins, so their form is hot. They demonstrated clutch bona-fides, winning each of their three overtime games, though that’s not likely to be a factor this afternoon.
Olivia Olson leads the way for Michigan in both scoring (19.2) and rebounding (6.2), and while her three-point shooting hasn’t been particularly efficient, her 79.1% free-throw percentage ranks second on the team. Syla Swords (14.5 points per game) and Mila Holloway (12.4) provide plenty of secondary scoring, and four players — Brooke Quarles Daniels (2.4), Olson (1.8), Swords (1.6), and Holloway (1.6) — average at least 1.5 steals per game for a team that ranks 24th nationally in that stat. The Wolverines also rank 15th in field goal percentage, 14th in rebound margin, and 18th in assists per game.
The key for Michigan will be avoiding fouling, since Holy Cross ranks a solid 62nd in free-throw percentage. That’s one area in which the Wolverines have massively struggled, ranking 299th in fouls per game. If any of Michigan’s stars get in foul trouble — especially in the front-court, where it is comparatively less deep — the Crusaders could capitalize enough to cover the spread. Holy Cross has solid interior defense and doesn’t turn the ball over too much.
