The PGA TOUR started the final event in the four-week Florida Swing on Thursday, and Sungjae Im got off to a fast start with a seven-under 64 that gave him the first round lead. The second round is already underway this Friday at the Copperhead Course Innisbrook Resort, so let’s take a look at some best bets in the afternoon wave of Round 2 of the Valspar Championship.
The weather forecast for Friday is sunny and breezy with winds picking up later in the day. Florida weather is always unpredictable, though, so be sure to keep close tabs on the weather as you plan your Round 2 strategy.
In this post, we’ll focus on my three best bets for Round 2 of the Valspar on Friday, March 20. Let’s tee it up!
Matchup (3 Way) – Round 2 – Billy Horschel (+104) over Andrew Putnam
Both Horschel and Putnam started the week strong with a four-under in Round 1. Horschel starts Round 2 at 1:25 p.m. ET from the first hole, while Putnam goes off at 1:53 p.m. ET from the 10th hole. If the winds get gusty later, Horschel could have a slight advantage, but my pick of Horschel in this 3-way prop is more based on his current form and success on this course.
Horschel had six birdies and two bogeys in Round 1, converting seven of his eight Scrambling opportunities. He ranked in the top 20 in Strokes Gained: Approach and top six in Strokes Gained: Putting.
Putnam had seven birdies and three bogeys, and most of his success was on the green, where he ranked fourth in Strokes Gained: Putting. However, he struggled on approach, losing strokes both off the tee and on approach.
Not only were his irons much better in Round 1, but Horschel also came into the event with more momentum than Putnam. Putnam had a T2 at The American Express early in the season, but then missed the cut in back-to-back events before finishing T44 at the Arnold Palmer and T32 at THE PLAYERS. Horschel didn’t qualify for THE PLAYERS, but had a T13 at the Palmer for his best finish of the season. He’s finished T12 and T4 in his last two Valspar appearances, and I think he has more staying power near the top of the leaderboard than Putnam in Round 2.
Xander Schauffele u69.5 Round Score – Round 2 (-114)
Schauffele also got off to a good start at the Valspar, with a three-under 68 on Thursday. He didn’t make a single bogey and dropped three birdies.
Schauffele could have had a much lower score if a few more breaks had gone his way. He ranked second in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, and tied for the field lead in Scrambling by avoiding bogeys. He ranked 93rd in the field, though, in Strokes Gained: Putting.
His putter can be a little streaky, but with the rest of his game in such good shape, Schauffele looks to be in a good spot to climb the leaderboard when he tees off at 1:14 p.m. ET.
Round 1 – 3 Ball Winner – Round 2 – Hank Lebioda (+225) over Thorbjorn Olesen and Chandler Phillips
Let’s finish out my Round 2 best bets with a longshot play from this trio teeing off at 12:47 p.m. ET. Olesen is actually the favorite in this group, even though he had a +2 in Round 1, while Lebioda and Phillips both shot even-par rounds.
Olesen did make three birdies, but also struggled to five bogeys, while Phillips had three birdies and three bogeys. Lebioda had four birdies and four bogeys, and he was two-under headed into the last two holes and had a two-shot lead in the three ball before finishing bogey-bogey.
Looking deeper at their Round 1 performances, Lebioda led the group in GIR% with 11 greens in regulation, while Olesen and Phillips each only had 10 greens in regulation. Lebioda also led the group by a wide margin in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is the most predictive stat for scoring on this course.
Getting Lebioda at over 2/1 odds is great value. He has made the cut in his last three events and will look to extend that streak to another event with a good showing on Friday. He’s made the cut in three of his four career appearances at Copperhead Course, highlighted by a T13 in 2021.
