Let the madness begin! The 64-team bracket is officially set, and we’ve got plenty of talented players, rosters, and Cinderellas ready to dance. #14 Charleston and #3 Duke face off tonight in the Women’s First Round, with the Blue Devils entering as 31.5-point favorites and a total set at 131.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Let’s dive into my prediction and pick for Friday’s First Round matchup, tipping off at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Charleston vs. Duke prediction
Duke enters tonight’s matchup fresh off an ACC Tournament title with a 24–8 record, earning a No. 3 seed. In an electric overtime win, the Blue Devils took down No. 12 Louisville, 70–65, behind Delaney Thomas and Taina Mair, who each dropped 19 points and combined for 21 rebounds. Duke has been running a tight seven-woman rotation that averaged 65 points per game in the ACC Tournament and still brings plenty of depth. Four players averaged 10+ points on the season — with Riley Nelson just below at 9.7 PPG — while Toby Fournier leads the charge with 17.3 PPG and 8.2 RPG.
The 6’2″ Toronto native can drop 20 points at any moment, hitting that mark 10 times this season, and has recorded 6+ rebounds in each of her last 15 games. Not only is she a key piece of Duke’s scheme, but her length allows her to clog passing lanes while impacting the game on both ends of the floor.
Charleston, meanwhile, enters as 31.5-point underdogs with a tough matchup ahead. The Cougars finished first in the CAA and went 27–5 on the season, riding a five-game winning streak into a conference title. Taryn Barbot led the way in the championship game with 23 points and six rebounds, while forward Grace Exebilo dominated the glass with 16 rebounds. Barbot averaged an impressive 19.6 PPG this season, but Charleston didn’t face a single Quad 1 opponent and picked up 23 of its wins against Quad 4 competition. Their second-leading scorer, Taylor Barbot, has served as the team’s primary playmaker, averaging 11.4 PPG and 6.0 APG.
While the Cougars have shown they can consistently put up points, the talent gap between these two squads will be a serious test for Charleston.
Charleston vs. Duke pick
It is the First Round, and while upsets can be incredibly fun to root for, I can’t go against the dominance of Toby Fournier and the Blue Devils.
Lean: Duke ML
