Play the music! March Madness’ Round of 64 tipped off yesterday with matchups all across the schedule, but the action continues today with even more! Whether you’re tuning in at your leisure this evening or taking off work with the diehards to soak in the action, there are games for everyone no matter where you look.
At 12:40 p.m. EST on Friday, the No. 12 Akron Zips face the No. 5 Texas Tech Red Raiders. This tilt is one that many people have picked to fulfill the near-annual tradition of a 5/12 upset, but will this underdog be the one to follow through on that trend?
Prepare for the game with an Akron vs. Texas Tech prediction, pick and more on DraftKings Sportsbook ahead of today’s contest.
Akron vs. Texas Tech prediction, preview
Akron Zips
The MAC saw a three-peat conference tournament winner when Akron took the top spot last week, downing Toledo to make history and punch a ticket to the NCAA Tournament. At 29-5 overall, this team now comes off its 10th consecutive victory and brings some significant momentum into this contest even as a No. 12 seed. However, the program went 0-2 against Quad 1 sides and has an identical record even against Quad 2s.
Akron’s NETRTG of +12.79 puts the group 64th in the KenPom rankings. The Zips lean on offense and are one of the highest-scoring teams in the nation with 86.9 PPG, seventh most at the Division I level. They’re 54th in ORTG and are strong in just about every key category — they shoot 49.8% from the field (13th) and 38.5% from deep (14th) with 17.9 assists (12th) and a 1.616 AST/TO ratio (26th). They’re 37th in rebounding with 37.1 boards per game as well. Looking toward the other side of the ball, Akron falls 114th in DRTG with 74.5 PPG allowed to opponents as well as a 50.6% eFG%. The group is also 59th in opponent turnovers per game.
Leading scorer Tavari Johnson posts 20.1 points and 5.0 assists per game with a 51.2% FG%. He’s complemented by Amani Lyles, who scores 14.6 points with a team-high 8.0 rebounds. Shammah Scott averages 12.7 points with an excellent 42.2% 3P%, and Ean Mahaffey brings 10.2 points with 5.6 boards and 3.5 dimes.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Meanwhile, the Red Raiders appeared poised for another deep NCAA Tournament run until star JT Toppin went down with a season-ending ACL tear. They managed to finish the season 22-10, but didn’t look the same without him in the lineup and suffered an ugly loss to Iowa State in the Big 12 Tournament. No. 5 Texas Tech heads into this stage of the season 7-9 against Quad 1 opponents and 5-1 against Quad 2s.
Texas Tech comes in at 20th in NETRTG at +25.19 per the KenPom rankings. The Red Raiders are still a strong offense and average 80.4 PPG with the 12th-best ORTG, but the upside is somewhat limited without Toppin. They shoot a respectable 46.7% from the field and are fourth best in the country from beyond the arc at 39.3%, connecting on the fourth-most 3PM per game. They also dish 15.8 assists with a 1.465 AST/TO ratio. The Red Raiders average 36.9 rebounds, 70th in the country though that mark has taken a hit since Toppin was injured. Defensively, they give up 72.6 PPG and are 33rd in DRTG.
Guard Christian Anderson averages a cool 18.9 points and 7.6 assists, both team-best marks with a 42.5% 3P% as well. Donovan Atwell produces 13.5 PPG while shooting 45.4% from downtown, and LeJuan Watts brings 11.5 points with a team-best 6.0 boards per game. Jaylen Petty also plays a key role with 9.5 PPG.
Akron vs. Texas Tech pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists Texas Tech as a 7.5-point favorite in this one with -325 odds on the Moneyline. Akron enters as a +260 ML underdog with the game total set at 156.5 combined points.
There’s a contingent of bettors taking the Zips to pull off an upset here in the traditional trend of a 12th-seeded team downing a No. 5 seed to open the tournament. The logic makes some sense given that the Red Raiders are 3-3 without Toppin and have dropped three consecutive games, but this may be a case in which some people galaxy brain their way out of cashing. They’re leaving out two key factors — Texas Tech is 5-1 against Quad 2 teams like Akron with an average scoring margin of 8.83 points, plus the Red Raiders can prey on a weak perimeter defense. As mentioned earlier, they’re one of the nation’s elite teams from beyond the arc even without Toppin, who isn’t much of a shooter. The Zips, meanwhile, are 325th in 3PA (26.2) and 326th in 3PM (9.2) allowed to opponents on a per-game basis. TTU should feast on that weakness to cover the spread, but you can get slightly better value with an alt line of -9.5 as well.
Best Bet: Texas Tech -7.5 (-115)
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