#11 South Florida (25-8, 15-3) rolled through the AAC, winning 11 straight en route to a conference title. Now, the Bulls face their biggest challenge yet: a March Madness showdown with #6 Louisville (23-10, 11-7). The Cardinals, despite an up and down campaign, emerged as one of the ACC’s strongest squads. However, they’ll enter this one shorthanded; can USF pull off a massive upset this afternoon?
Louisville enters Thursday as 4.5-point favorites (-110) over USF. The total is set at 164.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Tip off is scheduled for 1:30 p.m. ET. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for today’s game between the Bulls and the Cardinals.
USF vs. Louisville prediction, preview
There’s a reason the Bulls have become trendy upset picks in most bracket pools. These guys can score with the best of them, ranking eighth in the nation with 87.7 points per game. That’s a direct result of their breakneck speed on offense, currently posting KenPom’s 15th-quickest adjusted tempo (71.5). Unlike other high-speed attacks, this squad maintains a presence inside the paint as well. AAC Player of the Year Izaiyah Nelson is someone that could boost his NBA Draft stock in a major way this weekend. Through 33 games, the big man is averaging 15.7 points, 9.6 rebounds, 1.6 steals and 1.4 blocks. He’s the main catalyst behind South Florida’s 38.2% offensive rebounding rate, seventh-best in college basketball.
From the perimeter, guards Wes Ennis (16.8 PPG) and Joseph Pinion (14.2 PPG) are the kind of irrational confidence guys that thrive in March. Together, the duo are averaging 6.7 three-pointers made per game on 37.2% shooting. Supporting pieces Josh Omojafo (11.5 PPG) and CJ Brown (11.1 PPG) are names to watch as well. If there’s cause for concern, this group is a bit top-heavy. Head coach Bryan Hodgson has no bench players averaging more than 4.5 points per game.
Surprisingly, the Bulls are better on defense than they are on offense, according to KenPom. Teams are shooting just 46.7% from inside the arc against them, the 25th-lowest mark in college basketball. If there’s a weakness here for South Florida, it’s a propensity for putting opponents on the line. USF’s 38.8 FTA/FGA allowed is 278th in all of college basketball.
As previously mentioned, Louisville is coming into this one at less than 100%. Per CBS Sports’ Jon Rothstein, the team will be without Mikel Brown on Thursday. The guard ranked second on the team in scoring (18.2 PPG) and first in assists (4.7 AST). That places even more pressure on fellow ball handler Ryan Conwell. Granted, the senior has been exceptional all season, notching 18.7 points per game on 41/35/85 shooting splits. Still, open shots will likely be harder to come by without Brown.
The Cardinals certainly know how to score, ranking 19th in adjusted offensive efficiency (124.1). While Brown plays a large role in that, this is a fairly diversified scoring attack. One thing is for certain: Pat Kelsey’s crew is going to let it fly from deep. Louisville is taking 52.8 three-point attempts per field goals attempted, fourth-highest among all Division I schools. A clear edge for the higher seed is its 78.4″ average height, 43rd-tallest in the nation; USF is 235th (77.1″). It’s also worth noting that the Cardinals have accumulated seven Quad 1 victories at neutral or away game locations.
USF vs. Louisville pick, best bet
If fully healthy, the duo of Brown and Conwell could prove to be too much in this one. However, without the former, Louisville isn’t nearly as dangerous on offense. In comparison, South Florida is one of college basketball’s hottest teams. To boot, USF might have the best player on the floor in Nelson. What good would March Madness be without a double-digit seed advancing, anyways? I’m backing the Bulls on the moneyline this afternoon.
Best Bet: USF ML (+170)
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