Before we get into the first round of the 2026 Women’s NCAA Tournament, we’ve got a handful of teams fighting for their chance to dance. Samford and Southern University face off tonight in the Women’s First Four matchup, with the Jaguars entering as 3.5-point favorites and a total set at 117.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Let’s dive into my prediction and pick for Thursday’s First Four matchup, tipping off at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Samford vs. Southern prediction
Samford enters the NCAA Tournament First Four as a Cinderella story in its own right. After going 16–18 in the regular season and finishing sixth in the SoCon, the Bulldogs made an impressive run through the conference tournament, defeating the top three teams to take home the title and earn a bid from the selection committee. Kaylee Yarbrough leads the team in scoring at 12.2 PPG and operates as a pure scoring threat, highlighted by her 25-point performance in the SoCon title game. Briana Rivera adds 11.5 PPG, while Emily Snoddy anchors the glass as the team’s top rebounder with 5.7 boards per game.
Then comes Southern. The Jaguars went 19–13 overall and captured the SWAC Tournament championship, defeating Alabama State 73–56. It was a full team effort, with four players scoring 10+ points in the title game and the bench contributing 26 of the team’s 73 total points. However, during the regular season, the Jaguars didn’t have a single player average double figures. While the lack of a true go-to scorer could be concerning under the bright lights of March, Southern makes up for it with depth and defensive intensity. Six players average at least one steal per game, led by Jocelyn Tate at 2.0 SPG, while DeMya Porter provides rim protection that makes this defense tough to crack. The Jaguars hold opponents to just 38.7% shooting from the field and have allowed only 53.7 PPG over their last 10 games.
Over that same 10-game stretch, both teams are 8–2 and feel evenly matched on paper. Southern is averaging 65.0 PPG, 32.0 RPG, and 3.8 BPG, while Samford is putting up 62.5 PPG, 28.2 RPG, and 3.3 BPG. With Samford riding momentum from its unlikely conference run and Southern leaning on a deep, defense-first identity, this matchup sets up as a true grind-it-out battle.
Samford vs. Southern pick
The Bulldogs already exceeded expectations with the run made in the SoCon Tournament, but their lack of playmaking and two-way players gives Southern the edge.
