The Phoenix Suns and San Antonio Spurs have been among the league’s biggest over-achievers this season. Before the season, few expected the Suns to be fighting for a top-six seed, given that they’d just missed the playoffs entirely and traded away Kevin Durant. Arguably even fewer expected the Spurs to still be alive in the chase for the West’s top seed with 13 games remaining in the season.
These overachievers will meet tonight at 8:10 p.m. ET in San Antonio for the final time before what could be a first-round matchup. Phoenix leads the season series, 2-1.
The hosts have the health advantage, as no Spur with a standard NBA contract is on the injury report. For the Suns, Dillon Brooks (hand) and Mark Williams (foot) remain out, and Royce O’Neale (knee) and Grayson Allen (knee) are both questionable.
San Antonio is a 9.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-470 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 226.5. Phoenix is +360 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this West battle and offer a prediction.
Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs preview, prediction
The Suns are cold, having lost each of their last three games, though each of the three defeats were narrow and came against playoff teams. With Brooks out, Devin Booker has had to carry the offensive load — he’s scored 30 or more points in six of his last seven games — but it simply wasn’t enough to lead to wins in Toronto, Boston, and Minnesota. Williams has now missed eight straight games after playing in 56 of the team’s first 61, and he won’t return for at least another four days. Oso Ighodaro has done a solid job filling in, but he doesn’t have the offensive ceiling that Williams does.
Phoenix will face a big challenge against the Spurs, who are arguably the hottest team in basketball. Dating back to the start of February, San Antonio has won 19 of its last 21 games, including 19 of the 20 in which Victor Wembanyama appeared. Across that span, Wembanyama has averaged 24.4 points, 11.2 rebounds, 1.3 steals, and 3.6 blocks per game in a late MVP charge, and both Dylan Harper (41.3% from deep) and Stephon Castle (38.7%) have started hitting their triples. If the Spurs’ young shooters can maintain their percentages while Wembanyama stays aggressive offensively, San Antonio is absolutely capable of winning a championship.
Suns at Spurs pick, best bet
The Spurs’ numbers across the last 21 games are pretty staggering. In that span, they’ve had the most efficient offense and fourth-best defense while also leading the league in assist-to-turnover ratio and true shooting percentage. Their elite production wasn’t even a function of an easy schedule; 12 of their last 21 games have come against teams with winning records. Either way, San Antonio has certainly been in better form than the Suns, who, despite going 7-7 since the All-Star break, have been below-average on both sides of the ball and have only beaten three teams with winning records in that span. On paper, neither of Phoenix’s absences have hurt the team — it has performed better with Brooks and Williams off the court than on it — but both players provide certain attributes that some of the team’s bench players do not.
Even amidst their hot streak, the Spurs have still allowed players to get to the rim at a league-average rate, but they have been extremely effective once opponents get downhill, limiting them to the league’s worst accuracy on restricted-area tries since the start of February. That could be a big problem for the Suns, who have attempted the second-fewest restricted-area shots per game since the All-Star break and converted them at the second-lowest rate. Meanwhile, across the same span, Phoenix has allowed the fifth-highest percentage at the rim (though on the third-fewest attempts), and San Antonio has managed to get downhill at a high frequency. As long as Castle and Wembanyama stay aggressive, they should be able to inflict damage.
Perhaps unsurprisingly for a team that’s been weak on the interior, the Suns have also struggled on the boards as of late, ranking below-average in total rebounding percentage since the All-Star break, while the Spurs rank ninth across the same span (fifth since the start of February). San Antonio has also had the slightly better transition offense (Wembanyama and Castle’s aggressiveness helps) and has done an excellent job taking care of the ball. Phoenix is also more foul-prone, though the Spurs aren’t a great free-throw shooting team regardless.
To be fair, the Suns could work themselves back into the game through their shooting, as even throughout its hot streak, San Antonio has conceded the the 11th-most wide-open threes per game and gotten fairly fortunate that opponents have connected on such shots at the sixth-lowest rate. Across the same span, Phoenix has been better at closing out on shooters and gotten less lucky. The Suns have also done a better job generating uncontested looks, and the Spurs’ 42.1% accuracy on such shots is bound to come down eventually. As long as Allen and O’Neale, who both rank in the league’s top 40 in made threes, both play, Phoenix should have a fairly sizable edge from beyond the arc.
Ultimately, despite their sometimes shoddy rim protection, I like the Suns to cover the spread. San Antonio is best-suited to slow down teams who operate in the interior and lack perimeter shooting — since Wembanyama’s presence effectively forces opponents to launch from deep — and that’s not Phoenix. The Spurs have benefited from enough shooting luck throughout their hot streak that any normalization should benefit the visitors.
