A thrilling overtime win in the Ivy League Championship sent #14 Penn (18-11, 9-5) to the NCAA Tournament. Now, the Quakers will hope to stay alive against a Big Ten juggernaut. #3 Illinois (24-8, 15-5) has all the pieces needed for a deep March Madness run. However, the Fighting Illini have been their own worst enemy at times. Will this title contender put it together on Thursday night?
Illinois enters Thursday as 24.5-point favorites (-110) over Penn. The total is set at 151.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Tip off is scheduled for 9:25 p.m. ET. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for today’s game between the Quakers and the Fighting Illini.
Penn vs. Illinois prediction, preview
It was a performance for the ages on Sunday from TJ Power, who dropped 44 points in the victory over Yale. The former Virginia transfer has been the straw that stirs the drink in Philadelphia. Through 28 games this season, he’s averaging 16.8 points, 7.9 rebounds and 2.4 assists to go with 45/43/61 shooting splits. The forward is carrying an otherwise lackluster scoring attack. Per KenPom, the Quakers are 204th in adjusted offensive efficiency. Penn does shoot at the nation’s 11th-best clip from three-point range (38.7%), but they are 20th-worst inside the arc (46.2%). A concussion has put the status of Ethan Roberts (16.9 PPG) in doubt. Even if the senior suits up, he likely won’t be at 100%.
While the Quakers excel at shooting threes, the same isn’t true for their opponents. Teams are knocking down just 31.7% of their attempts from long distance vs. Penn, 54th-lowest in college basketball. Unfortunately, much like on offense, this squad is far less formidable from two-point range. A lack of size likely plays a part; no player in head coach Fran McCaffery’s rotation is taller than 6’9″. Power, while gifted offensively, can be taken advantage of as a small-ball center.
Height could prove to be a difference-maker in this one. The Illini, especially compared to Penn, are giants. Brad Underwood has five different players in his rotation that are at least 6’7″. That includes twin seven-footers Tomislav and Zvonimir Ivisic. However, the strength of this squad is its back court. Superstar guard Keaton Wagler leads the way with 17.9 points, 4.8 rebounds and 4.4 assists. Andrej Stojakovic (13.4 PPG, 4.6 REB) and veteran Kylan Boswell (13.2 PPG) aren’t slouches, either. Down low, 6’9″ forward David Mirkovic (13.4 PPG) has been a force as well.
With so many weapons, it’s no surprise that Illinois ranks second in adjusted offensive efficiency on KenPom (132.2). However, as previously mentioned, this team can be its own worst enemy. The Fighting Illini are mediocre from beyond the arc (34.7%). However, they rank 12th in three-point attempts per field goals attempted (50.7). Following a week off, against a solid Penn perimeter defense, a trigger-happy game plan feels risky. If Illinois simply leans on its big bruisers inside the paint, this could be over quickly.
Penn vs. Illinois pick, best bet
The Illini boast a massive talent advantage at nearly every position, hence a 25.5-point spread. Still, in a first round matchup where teams often struggle to shoot, a gigantic blowout is no guarantee. Penn’s knack for defending the three, and McCaffery’s experience vs. the Big Ten, could play a factor. Still, it’s not as if there’s much going on for the Quakers offensively, other than Power and the now-injured Roberts. If there’s anything I feel confident in here, it’s Illinois’ height making life difficult. Don’t expect a shootout in Greenville on Thursday night.
Best Bet: Penn vs. Illinois under 151.5 (-110)
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