No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 9 TCU College Basketball prediction, preview (12:15 pm ET on Thursday in Greenville, SC)
TCU opened as a 4.5-point underdog and quickly took money, moving the spread down to 2.5 on Sunday night. The Horned Frogs are just 4-10 straight up when priced as the underdog this season, but have taken down some elite teams. TCU has wins during Feast Week over Florida and Wisconsin on consecutive days on a neutral floor. It also defeated Iowa State at home, Texas Tech on the road, and took Michigan and Kansas down to the wire multiple times.
Ohio State can make similar claims, though, also defeating Wisconsin, Purdue and pushing Michigan to its limit. Both teams enter the NCAA Tournament hot, with the Buckeyes having a four-game winning streak snapped in a close game against the Wolverines in the Big Ten Tournament. TCU has won six of seven, with the loss to Kansas in the Big 12 Tournament.
This should be a very competitive game, as the seeds suggest. While the move on the spread is likely warranted, we can now get a short enough price on Ohio State on the moneyline to justify a play. TCU’s offense can be concerning at times, ranking 81st on KenPom in offensive efficiency. The Frogs finished top-30 in defensive efficiency, although the numbers suggest the defense has fallen off a bit over the last month.
The same metrics suggest Ohio State has been constantly improving on both sides of the ball. The Buckeyes finished the season ranked 17th in offensive efficiency and just outside the top-50 in defensive efficiency. But over the last month, Ohio State has ranked 14th in offensive efficiency and jumped up to 35th in defensive efficiency. TCU is just 47th in defensive efficiency over the same span.
The seeding here correctly suggests that these two teams have had similar seasons, so I want to put extra stock in how each team has looked recently. The recent numbers favor Ohio State, and are likely why the initial number opened high at 4.5. I’ll back the Buckeyes on a short moneyline price.
