Facing off in the East region of the NCAA Tournament, the third-seeded Michigan State Spartans will take on the 14th-seeded North Dakota State Bison.
Looking at the odds, Michigan State enters as a 16.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. North Dakota State holds +1000 odds on the Moneyline, with the game total set at O/U 143.5 points.
North Dakota State vs. Michigan State prediction, preview
The North Dakota State Bison earned an NCAA Tournament opportunity by winning the Summit League Tournament. They went 27-7 across the regular season and finished the season strong, picking up victories in 17 of their final 19. On the season, North Dakota State has gone 18-13 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 16 of their 31 qualifying games.
The leap in competition is a concern coming out of the Summit League conference. North Dakota State ranks 280th out of the 365 qualifying teams in strength of schedule. They did not play a Quad 1 game all season and were 0-1 in their lone Quad 2 matchup with St. Thomas-Minnesota. The Bison rank 71st in the country in scoring by averaging 80.7 points per game. David Richman’s squad also ranks 56th in offensive rating, 78th in field goal percentage, and 38th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 69.6 points per game against the Bison, which ranks 66th in the country. North Dakota State also ranks 42nd in defensive rating and 37th in opponents’ rebounds allowed.
Demari Wheeler-Thomas leads the team in scoring with 14.4 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 2.8 assists, while shooting 38.5% on three-point attempts. Trevian Carson adds 12.0 points and 6.4 rebounds, Markhi Strickland pitches in 11.8 points while leading the conference with a 59.8% field goal percentage, and Treyson Anderson is the lone other player to average in double figures with 10.4 points and 5.4 rebounds of his own. Noah Feddersen, Andy Stefonowicz, and Tay Smith also play notable roles.
Michigan State earned a 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament by going 25-7 on the year. They are coming off back-to-back losses against Michigan and UCLA to close the season, but have ranked wins against Kentucky, Arkansas, North Carolina, Illinois and Purdue to their name. The Spartans went 10-6 in Quad 1 matchups and 4-1 against Quad 2 opponents this year. On the season, Michigan State has gone 17-15 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 17 of their 32 games played.
Tom Izzo’s squad leans on its defensive identity for success. The Spartans score 78.9 points per game, which ranks 101st in the country. They also rank 49th in offensive rating, 67th in field goal percentage, 72nd in three-point percentage, and tally the seventh-most assists in the country. Defensively, opponents are scoring 68.4 points per game against Michigan State, which ranks 43rd in among D1 teams. They also rank 57th in defensive rating, 35th in opponents’ field goal percentage, 136th in opponents’ three-point percentage, and allow the fewest rebounds to opponents in the country.
Jeremy Fears Jr. leads the team with 15.7 points per game and leads the nation with 9.2 assists per game. Jaxon Kohler has averaged 12.7 points and 9.0 rebounds, while shooting 39.4% on three-point attempts. Coen Carr is also an important scoring threat, posting averages of 11.6 points and 5.4 rebounds, while Carson Cooper is the only other to average double figures with 10.8 points and 7.1 rebounds of his own.
North Dakota State vs. Michigan State pick, best bet
The lack of stiff competition that North Dakota State has faced is a concern for this matchup. St. Thomas-Minnesota was their toughest matchup of the season, and North Dakota State suffered an 84-62 loss. While the Tommies are a solid squad, Michigan State blows them out of the water from a pure talent perspective.
The biggest reason for optimism for North Dakota State is the chance to get hot from deep. They rank 91st in three-point attempts and 38th in perimeter efficiency on the season. Michigan State has not done a great job defending the three-point line this season, ranking 320th in three-point attempts allowed and 136th in opponents’ three-point percentage. North Dakota State is 21-2 when they shoot above 30.0% on three-pointers this season, but the margin for error is slim against this Michigan State team.
There is not much doubt that the Spartans are the better team, but 16.5-points is a notable spread. Michigan State ranks 25th in the country in average margin of victory, winning games by +10.5 points per game. They have done a nice job covering big numbers and pushing games into blowout territory, winning 12 of their 25 games by more than 16.5 points this season.
Ultimately, expect North Dakota State to look like a bit of a deer in headlights in this matchup and for Michigan State to shine as the better team. The Spartans have a high-level defense that will make life difficult for them. Expect there to be a toughness on this Spartans team that is necessary in this type of NCAA Tournament setting, and for this leap in competition to be too steep for North Dakota State. It should be viewed as a successful season that the Bison qualified for the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2018-19. But there are levels to the college basketball game, and expect Michigan State to put this on display in the early minutes of this matchup and stretch this to a blowout beyond the 16.5-point spread. Count on Michigan State to have a significant talent advantage and look like the better team on both sides of the ball as they push this to a blowout in the early stages of the matchup.
